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GNAR or the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors reported 3,079 home closings were turned in by local Nashville Realtors in May 2014. This is up .6% over May 2013. This is good news because Nashville home sales were actually down 1.2% in March and .5% in April which shows we are definitely trending upwards in time for the summer selling cycle. Keep in mind, before March this year, Nashville home sales hadn’t seen a down month all the way back to June 2011.

The really good news for homeowners is that year to date, home sales of Nashville are up 1.6% during this same period in 2013.
Of course, with sales like this, we should expect to see prices increase and we are. It’s slight increase in prices for both single family and condo sales yet, it’s still affordable for many potential home buyers. On average, a single family home cost $209,900.00 in May which is up from May 2013 where a single family Nashville home would cost you $174,000.00. As for condos, they sold in May for an average of $174,000 which is up from $166,900 in May 2013.
By the time May ended, the MLS saw 3,108 pending sales which is a great sign that June’s numbers will be just as good as May, if not better.

Nashville’s total inventory of homes, condos and lost was at 15,926 for sale by end of May and that’s down from last year where we had 16,760. This means competition for good quality homes is increasing and as the summer season is only starting, we expect summer 2014 to be good for homeowners seeking to sale their Nashville Home

Get your homes value at www.MyNashvilleHomeValues.com

A quick summary:

2012 finished strong ending up 8.8% over 2011 when measuring by average Price Per Sq. Ft. and 11.7 % when measuring by average sale price. There are reports of 15% so I want to clarify that my reports are based on the following:

Residential Single Family Residences under 1 acre in Bend

I exclude the following from the report: Townhomes, Condos, all manufactured homes, lot size over an acre.

Number of sales is up by 17.5% and home size is on the rise again. See table 1

Average sale price as a percentage of original list price remains strong at 95%.

Sale price as a percentage of current list price remains strong at 98.3%. Table 2

There are 7 charts total and 2 tables. Each designed to give a unique perspective of our market. Charts 3 6 and 7 show the most drastic change in my mind but I’ll let you judge them for yourself.

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Unless something drastic happens which seems to be increasingly possible these days and if current inventory trends continue, expect 2013 to be another strong year for Real Estate in Bend as the rest of the story continues to be the shrinking supply of inventory… Speaking of which, we’ll take a look at inventory trends next report.

Below is a quick summary. Certainly take a look at the charts to see the trends and historical data to put it all into context.

FYI: last report all trends were up except for number of sales 3^rd quarter over 2^nd quarter

View charts and tables attached to see more detailed reports

Price/sq ft

4th Quarter 2012 over 4th Quarter 2011: UP                  

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012  Even                  

2012 YTD over 2011.                                    UP

Home Size

4th Quarter 2012 over 4th Quarter 2011:  UP

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012:  UP

Number of Sales

4th Quarter 2012 over 4^th Quarter 2011:    UP           

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012:   Down              

Many sources quote Median sale price and/or average sale price. View the tables to see how these values can paint a different picture of the market.

View charts and tables to see other market measures:

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Although home prices have not returned to the average of $196,000 like it was last year, it is getting close. When comparing home prices at different tiers, Madison is staying ahead of the rest of the state in all three tiers.  The following charts are from Zillow.  This first chart points out two facts.  First, the average price for a home in Wisconsin in the upper tier is around $232,000.  However, for Madison the price is approximately $295,000.  This points to the continued growth in the Madison area.  Secondly, while the average price in this tier only increased 0.2% for the state of Wisconsin, in Madison the price improved by 1.6% 

List-to-sold ratios dove into negative territory in December. December List-to-sold ratios tend to be the lowest of the year anyway but this is the first time since starting this project in 2007 we have witnessed a monthly average in negative territory.

    Admittedly one month out of over sixty is but a blip on the radar screen. Even so it is a pretty big drop along a very long downward trend.  

Chart 1 shows the long downward trend over several years and the dive to negative territory very well. Chart 2 depicts the gradual downward shift from year to year that has been occurring since 2009.

        In years past, we typically see list to sold ratios begin an upward trend in January, leading to inventory build in spring however, the long-term trend is down so unless something drastic happens, expect inventory in the next month or two to either increase as it does seasonally but at a much lower pace or maybe, just maybe it will continue its downward slide.

    Upward pressure on sale prices has a pretty strong hold for the time being. Speaking of sale prices, I’ll have final results for 2012 complete in about a week.

See list to Sold Charts inventory charts and price trend charts:

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Made some changes to the charts to make it easier to see trends as well as changes in variation; change is definitely apparent.

List to sold ratios continue their long-term decline. Down in 2012 from 2011; down the last 3 months as we near the fourth quarter a time when, since 2007 (except 2009) they drop even further.  2012 has already seen the lowest list to sold ratios since the beginning of this project in 2007. If the 4^th quarter trend repeats expect even lower ratios and consequently lower inventory levels in the months to come in central Oregon.

Getting back on my variation soap box again, variation has drastically decreased as well, meaning our little Real Estate process here in Central Oregon is getting closer and closer to some semblance of predictability, at least for now anyway J

I completed the July Sales data but didn’t report it. If you have time, wander over to the website and check it out. July sales were pretty impressive.  I don’t usually get real excited about monthly reporting because they can be so see-saw; instead we have strong looking upward trend.

The table shows a strong 3^rd quarter for appreciation so far in average, median and price/ sq ft price measures.

For a more comprehensive understanding of our market see additional charts and tables covering inventory, sale and list prices etc.:

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Also now on:

http://centralorhomesales.com/inventory.asp

May 2012 Could Signal a Turn Around for Housing Market

There is some hope for the real estate market. According to a report published by the Commerce Department the number of homes purchased in May of 2012 was the highest number in over two years. The number of purchases increased from April to May by 7.6%. That number is the best increase since April of 2010 when the tax credit for purchasing a home was still in effect.

Areas of Highest Growth

The places that saw the largest increases were the South and Northeast. The number of homes purchased in the South grew by 12.7% while the growth in the Northeast was 36.7%

Although the total number of sales across the country seems to be off pace from the 700,000 transactions favored by economists, the market is showing other signs of improvement.

Strong Signals from the Market

First and foremost, builders have begun to increase production. More construction is always a positive sign, no matter how small the increase. Second, interest rates for mortgages are still at historically low levels making it easy to afford a home. Third, and this is important too, is the stabilization of home values. Most regions around the country have noticed home values finally holding steady. All of these factors have lead to people buying up existing homes, paving the way to build more properties.

More than Just Statistics

The main reason why economists and financial analysts pay so much attention to new construction comes from their overall economic impact. Building a new home normally produces about three new year-long jobs. It also leads to an increase in taxable revenue by an average of $90,000. Although new homes are only 20% of the entire housing market, the numbers above show how constructions helps the economy thrive.

Supply is Down

At the end of May it was reported that a total of 145,000 new homes were on the market throughout the entire country. Based on current sales numbers the market should go through the existing inventory of new homes in about 4.5 months. Economic experts feel that a 6 month supply of new homes keeps the economy healthy. With a lower than average supply it is possible that home prices could go up simply because demand will be higher.

Prices Already Higher

Speaking in general averages, the price of a home bought in May of 2012 was down ever so slightly from the average price in April. However, when looking at sales from one year ago shows that average prices have gone up by 5.6%.

Home Prices in Wisconsin are Stabilizing

Amidst the turmoil and problems of the year, there was some good news about Wisconsin home values in the year 2011; prices have stabilized. Based on a year-end report conducted by the Wisconsin Realtors® Association (WRA), the number of homes sold was slightly better than for the year 2010. And the price drop from 2010 to 2011 has been minor, signaling that we may have found the bottom of the price bubble.

Not Unexpected

However, this trend is not a surprise to seasoned real estate agents. The Federal Homebuyer credit that was so popular during the year 2010 was projected to have a negative impact on the first six months of 2011. This prediction came true. Even more importantly, the latter half of 2011 saw a strong increase in home sales that were higher than the same point from 2010.

Small Signs of Economic Improvement

The best news is the fact that the number of homes selling has increased. While different parts of Wisconsin have seen varying degrees of improvement, the entire state has benefitted from improvements made in the economy. While government has shown a loss in jobs, the private sector is increasing enough in new jobs to offset the government loss. This has led to a drop in the total state unemployment number, down from 7.6% to 7.1%

Lower Prices Main Reason for More Sales

Obviously, when the price of goods drops it usually signals more buying from consumers. The same is true for homes across Wisconsin. Historically low mortgage rates, paired with lower home prices, have enabled more families to buy that first elusive home. While the average home price is roughly 25% to 30% lower today than it was in 2006, the recent trends are promising. Prices will rise with increased demand. As long as unemployment continues to drop and people continue to purchase homes, the prices will eventually rise again.

Everything moves in Cycles

Keep in mind that the state economy is like a giant organism. When something affects one part, another part is affected as well. Case in point, apartments are beginning to see a good recovery. A large number of people have chosen to rent a place for the short term while they make their plans to buy a home. As this trend continues, the price to rent an apartment or single family home will rise. When the price to rent becomes higher than the monthly payment on a typical mortgage, more people will look to purchase a home.

The last few years have been tough on a lot of people. Loss of jobs, drop in home prices and a general feeling of despair have been quite common. However, times are improving, if only slightly. Now is the time to get our financial houses in order and push forward to take advantage of the great home ownership opportunities that lie before us.

Original Post - Home Prices in Wisconsin are Stabilizing

Optimists

AP

A wave of foreclosures is forcing down home prices in most major U.S. cities. But economists and real estate agents are noticing what they call a key first step for any housing recovery: a drop in the glut of homes for sale in markets hit hardest by foreclosures.

If we were to see several consecutive months of supply getting smaller, it would point to an improving housing market, said Celia Chen, senior director at Moodys Analytics. Even if it is investors buying them, they are renting them out in hopes that prices in the next several years will rise.

NAR

According to the latest Realtors Confidence Index, the gap between the indices of Prospective Home Buyer Traffic and Prospective Home Seller Traffic has narrowed, with an increase in Prospective Buyer Traffic. A continuation of the narrowing of the gap between buyer and seller interest would be favorable to the strengthening of real estate markets nationwide.

In many cases, and in recent years, market prices have already declined substantially. The size of the shadow inventory, mortgages, 30 days overdue or in foreclosure, suggests that problems may not be resolved for two or three years. However, the shadow inventory is declining in size and we may be near the end of continued price declines in many markets. Chart

Pessimists

Standard and Poors

There is very little, if any, good news about housing. Prices continue to weaken, trends in sales and construction are disappointing. says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices. Ten of the 11 MSAs that recorded index lows in January fell further in February.

Wall Street Journal

The enormous supply overhang of existing homes (particularly factoring in all those in foreclosure or soon to be) promises to keep pressure on prices for some time, said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. From a longer-term perspective, it is important to keep in mind that in the seven years leading up to the peak in July 2006, the nonseasonally adjusted national 20 city home price index jumped by 155% (126 index points)… So far, this index has dropped by 32% (66 index points) in the 55 months since the peak.

I could fill the page with pessimists, hardly a positive thought out there today. I think the most positive take away is that at least this is an orderly retreat, rather than the kind of screeching declines we have seen.

Thanks For Reading

www.yourpropertypath.com

 We all know whats happening to the single family home markets. Over supply and shadow inventory and the subsequent price declines will continue until fear is overcome and inventory is soaked up.

The kinds of issues that led to a boom bust in housing did not take place with multi family. There was no build out leading to over supply and the lender market was much more rationlized. Little of the kind of lending that led to so many foreclosures, ultimately driving home prices down.

Lack Of Supply In The Rental Market
From 1997 to 2006, multifamily construction was about 342,000 new units per year, but by 2010 they new construction declined 66%. Government estimates indicate we will need 1.5 million additional units annually just to keep up with population growth. Quite a shortfall, indeed

Lack Of Lender Interest In Funding Any Real Estate
Adding to a undersupply is a real lack of lender interest in more housing of any kind. Although this appears to be a negative, it protected the sector from the boom mania and has kept the multi family market on a sound footing.

Foreclosure
Realty Trac reports annual foreclosure filings spiked from 1 million in 2006 to 3.9 million in 2009, and were about the same number in 2010. Finally, the huge foreclosure debacle is making renters out of all of us.

Demographics
The combination of immigration, retirees moving back in and a new generation up will equal the size of the boomers,creating a large pool of new renters. Now thats huge!

A Solid Market
The national vacancy rate for rentals fell 17% last year to 6.6%, according to Reis. And rents jumped. In New York, up 9% on average in the last five years; in San Jose, they're up 8% San Francisco, one of the best rental markets in the country has seen its vacancy rates drop as rentals in all neighborhoods post new highs.
You may republish this article, as long as you do not edit and you agree to preserve all links to the author and www.yourpropertypath.com

You may republish this article, as long as you do not edit and you agree to preserve all links to the author and www.yourpropertypath.com 

Rent vs Buy End Of Year 2010

A Recent Survey: Is It Time To Buy Rental Property

Increase Rental Income and Lower Your Vacancies

Case Shiller report shows a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs. Housing generally leads the economy out of a recession. This time its not, housing is simply suffering. Not only is money tight but job creation is still a big hurt. In some cities, the decline over the last year was quite sharp.

David M. Blitze,chairman of S.&P.’s index committee tells the NY Times that a double-dip could be confirmed before spring. He goes on to say the series is now only 4.8% and 3.3% above their April 2009 lows. Certainly nine cities set new lows, and with the only positive news concentrated in southern California and Washington DC, the data point to weakness in home prices.

S&P sounds dismal, indeed. David Wyss, S&Ps chief economist tells martketwatch that The recovery in home prices has not only stopped, it's going in reverse, that it's going to get worse before it gets better

Some Balance Is Needed

Artificial Stimulus
The tax credit
First, the index to a positive spike due to the tax credit, an artificial inducement to buy. Well it worked, and we saw buyers flood the market. But comparing new data to a spike that doesnt represent normal market behavior, but a artificial spike in home sales due to the tax credit can skew the true picture.

Seasonality
This is the slowest part of the year for home sales and must have something to do with the steep decline

Weather
Could the weather have been worse for the mid west and east coast? Winter is traditionally a poor indicator of market health.

Certainly, this market needs no excuses and Im not second guessing S&P, but lets not lose perspective - winter data is hardly a leading indicator for housing markets and there is more to the story than the data is expressing.

You may republish this article, as long as you do not edit and you agree to preserve all links to the author and www.yourpropertypath.com

According to Royal Bank of Scotland analysts, using data from corelogic, "The month-over-month price decline in November was the largest in 2010."

The most recent CoreLogic (CLGX: 19.11 -0.21%) Housing Price Index, scheduled for public release next week, will show home prices dipped 3.35% nationally from November 2009 to November 2010.

(http://www.housingwire.com/2011/01/06/home-prices-go-haywire-coast-to-coast)

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