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NAWRB at the 2011 National Association of Realtors Conference

Posted by Desiree Patno on November 9, 2011 at 7:32am

 

We are diving into the holiday season.  The 2011 National Association of Realtors conference will be one of the last opportunities to network and poise our business toward success.

 

I hope you take this opportunity to learn about how the National Association of Women REO Brokerages (NAWRB) can help enhance your business.  Stop by our booth #1678.  We will share with you our innovative ideas for 2012.

 

 

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The Stock Market Looks At Real Estate

Posted by Howard Bell on August 25, 2010 at 1:39pm

Well, we all have heard the bad news, housing sales down again, hugely - 23% in the quarter. NAR reports that sales are at their lowest since the sales series launched in 1999, and single family sales are at the lowest level since May of 1995. And it doesnt look much better in the near term either. Pending sales, a forward indicator of market activity, dropped 30% based on contracts signed on May and is almost 16% the May 09 numbers.

These reports are always about today. The stock market, however, is considered a discount mechanism. It trys to look into the future...to look past a problem and try to determine value and opportunity. So I wanted to see what the stock market had to say about these dismal numbers.

Heres What the Stock Market Says About Real Estate
Its all About What You Focus On.

Its not without its losers, but the sector rallied on this news! In fact demand for homes sold has been relatively strong given real market conditions. see chart Even in the face of foreclosures, underwater borrowers and unemployment and the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Why?

Affordability
Stock market investors are looking at whats next and they see affordability. Home prices have declined to levels beginning to look affordable. Certainly painful for millions, but its how markets cycle. When prices get silly, they have to rationalize before an intelligent buyer will enter.

Supply
The builders have not been putting up much new stock for quite a while and today I noticed the builder stocks were up. Lennar did a deal worth 3 billion with the FDIC to buy bank loans and Toll Brothers swings to profit today. All of this in spite of a huge inventory overhang, perhaps the largest on record. see chart

Cheap Money
The cost of many is also very low and part of the affordability issue. Average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are hovering around 5%.

Demographics
Investors are hoping demographics and population growth can also take up the slack.

Why the S&P Real Estate REIT index is up from a one year low of $73.85 to over $105 today. We have more to work through and the near and mid term are rocky but the economy is still expected to recover and homes still sell.

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Real Estate Markets: Whats The Catalyst

Posted by Howard Bell on July 28, 2010 at 4:10pm
The number of homeowners missing their first payment on their mortgage declined from May to June and number of loans in foreclosure was flat at nearly 2 million. Delinquencies and Foreclosures remain stable but elevated with two loans deteriorating for every one that has improved. see chart here

So Whats The Catalyst
It's all about jobs and income growth and until that happens there's nothing that's going to push sales. As sales have slowed, the supply of unsold homes on the market has risen 2.5 percent to nearly 4 million. That's a nearly nine-month supply at the current sales pace, the highest level since August. It compares with a healthy level of about six months.

Sales are likely to keep falling for three to four months, said Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist. That would likely boost the supply of unsold homes to more than 10 months for the first time since the spring of 2009. And it could push down home prices.

NARs Future Forcast
Bread Crumbs
Through May of this year 495,000 net private sector jobs have been created; NARs forecast for employment growth is about 1 million additional net new jobs over the balance of the year and another 2 million in 2011. If jobs come back as expected, the pace of home sales should pick up later this year and reach a sustainable level of activity given very favorable affordability conditions

Rae Rosen, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Wall Street typically hires in anticipation of the recovery, and there is a sense that the economy has bottomed out and is slowly improving

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Housings Weak Recovery: Lets Follow The Money

Posted by Howard Bell on January 6, 2010 at 5:09pm
Quarterly reports are out. NAR, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence reports all indicate that the housing recovery is faltering to flat. Much of the Govt supports will be slowly exiting as the Fed tests the normal functions of an economy replace Federal aid.ResidentialCase Shiller and NAR reports show continued weakness and everyone is wondering whether the recovery is waning. Case Shiller notes that the rate of decline in home prices slowed in October from the previous month, and prices remain flat after the spring and summer gains. Home price Indices of its its 10-city and 20-city composite indices declined 6.4% and 7.3%, putting home prices at 2003 levels. A flat report is not as bad as much of the last two years, but some Govt programs are being phased out see chartNAR site points out that on a month-to -month basis,only seven of the 20 cities showed improvement. NARs data for November showed prices down 4.3% year-over-year. Foreclosures continue to be the problem, making up 30% of the third quarter’s home purchase.Moodys points out that there are 3 million more homes in the pipe and that another 3 million are 30-60 days late. These homes are in a foreclosure pattern. New Home Sales: The government reported that sales of new homes dropped a sharp 11.3 percent, an indication that supply is still greater than demand.ApartmentsThe apartment market is showing signs of improvement, according to the National Multi Housing Council’s latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. Although the survey still indicates higher vacancies and lower rents, we see increased sales activity and greater availability of debt and equity capital compared with three months ago. Apartments have long been considered the better investment, partly because there is financing available and they didnt participate in the building boom of single family homesFollow The MoneyThe American Recovery and Investment Act of 2009Will pump more economic stimulus money into federally subsidized apartment units, while HUD’s budget proposal for next year seeks another $1.8 billion for construction of rental housing.GreenHUD and the U.S. Department of Energy are working together to offer more financial incentives for owners to retrofit properties for energy efficiency. Another economic stimulus plan enacted earlier this year provided funds for green retrofits. Larger property owners of commercial buildings including apartment complexes whereconservation of energy had the greatest impact. Hopefully, some of this money will trickle down to smaller owners.Fannie and FreddieCongress had placed a cap on spending of $200 billion dollars on each. On Christmas eve, Obama lifted the cap through 2012, giving the two quasi public institutions a blank check. I think this points very clearly to the next big wave of foreclosure that will stem from the Alt A and commercial mortgage recasts that will be coming due between now and 2012. A blank check (read big money problems) is whats next.The Stock MarketREITSThe Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return Index is up 31% this year, reversing a 38% decline in 2008, beating the S&P 500 by 25%. Given all the flat to downright ugly news still coming out it seems counter intuitive that real estate funds would be doing so well.They have been raising money issuing new shares and selling property whenever they can. In short, they have been raising money for whats expected to be a generational opportunity in good properties coming on the market at great prices. The ishares industrial/office and retail REITS are up 10.7% and 11.2% respectively in November/December alone. Even mortgage REITS are up 3.8% for the same period. Heres what they are looking at...Real Estate RubbleBloomberg reports that commercial property prices have fallen by 30 percent to 50 percent wiping out the equity in most debt financed real estate deals since 2005. This equals as much as 54 percent of the $1.4 trillion in loans that will come due in four years, according to Randall Zisler, chief executive officer of Zisler Capital Partners LLC (via Bloomberg News).Mr. Zisler goes on to say that much of the debt is likely worth about 50 percent of par. Many banks will end up insolvent as they reduce the value of their holdings, he wrote, adding that regional and community lenders are especially vulnerable.Stock markets are forward looking mechanisms and the REITS are looking passed the problem to great future buying opportunities. If the banks are holding so much bad paper, then it will be taxpayer money (those blank checks) and private investment money (REITs) likely final owners of all this real estate rubble. I know that investors will cherry pick and to drive hard deals to profit. I wonder if that leaves us, the taxpayers, to buy whats left.... Its all in the oversightThanks for Readingwww.yourpropertypath.comRelated ArticlesNAR: Existing Home Sales ReportShould You Stop Paying Your MortgageStock Market Views On The Housing RecoveryThe Coming Mortgage Debt Reduction Programs
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Housings Weak Recovery: Lets Follow The Money

Posted by Howard Bell on January 2, 2010 at 4:35pm
Quarterly reports are out. NAR, Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence reports all indicate that the housing recovery is faltering to flat. Much of the Govt supports will be slowly exiting as the Fed tests the normal functions of an economy replace Federal aid.ResidentialCase Shiller and NAR reports show continued weakness and everyone is wondering whether the recovery is waning. Case Shiller notes that the rate of decline in home prices slowed in October from the previous month, and prices remain flat after the spring and summer gains. Home price Indices of its its 10-city and 20-city composite indices declined 6.4% and 7.3%, putting home prices at 2003 levels. A flat report is not as bad as much of the last two years, but some Govt programs are being phased out.NAR site points out that on a month-to -month basis,only seven of the 20 cities showed improvement. NARs data for November showed prices down 4.3% year-over-year. Foreclosures continue to be the problem, making up 30% of the third quarter’s home purchase.Moodys points out that there are 3 million more homes in the pipe and that another 3 million are 30-60 days late. These homes are in a foreclosure pattern. New Home Sales: The government reported that sales of new homes dropped a sharp 11.3 percent, an indication that supply is still greater than demand.ApartmentsThe apartment market is showing signs of improvement, according to the National Multi Housing Council’s latest Quarterly Survey of Apartment Market Conditions. Although the survey still indicates higher vacancies and lower rents, we see increased sales activity and greater availability of debt and equity capital compared with three months ago. Apartments have long been considered the better investment, partly because there is financing available and they didnt participate in the building boom of single family homesFollow The MoneyThe American Recovery and Investment Act of 2009Will pump more economic stimulus money into federally subsidized apartment units, while HUD’s budget proposal for next year seeks another $1.8 billion for construction of rental housing.GreenHUD and the U.S. Department of Energy are working together to offer more financial incentives for owners to retrofit properties for energy efficiency. Another economic stimulus plan enacted earlier this year provided funds for green retrofits. Larger property owners of commercial buildings including apartment complexes whereconservation of energy had the greatest impact. Hopefully, some of this money will trickle down to smaller owners.Fannie and FreddieCongress had placed a cap on spending of $200 billion dollars on each. On Christmas eve, Obama lifted the cap through 2012, giving the two quasi public institutions a blank check. I think this points very clearly to the next big wave of foreclosure that will stem from the Alt A and commercial mortgage recasts that will be coming due between now and 2012. A blank check (read big money problems) is whats next.The Stock MarketREITSThe Dow Jones Equity All REIT Total Return Index is up 31% this year, reversing a 38% decline in 2008, beating the S&P 500 by 25%. Given all the flat to downright ugly news still coming out it seems counter intuitive that real estate funds would be doing so well.They have been raising money issuing new shares and selling property whenever they can. In short, they have been raising money for whats expected to be a generational opportunity in good properties coming on the market at great prices. The ishares industrial/office and retail REITS are up 10.7% and 11.2% respectively in November/December alone. Even mortgage REITS are up 3.8% for the same period. Heres what they are looking at...Real Estate RubbleBloomberg reports that commercial property prices have fallen by 30 percent to 50 percent wiping out the equity in most debt financed real estate deals since 2005. This equals as much as 54 percent of the $1.4 trillion in loans that will come due in four years, according to Randall Zisler, chief executive officer of Zisler Capital Partners LLC (via Bloomberg News).Mr. Zisler goes on to say that much of the debt is likely worth about 50 percent of par. Many banks will end up insolvent as they reduce the value of their holdings, he wrote, adding that regional and community lenders are especially vulnerable.Stock markets are forward looking mechanisms and the REITS are looking passed the problem to great future buying opportunities. If the banks are holding so much bad paper, then it will be taxpayer money (those blank checks) and private investment money (REITs) likely final owners of all this real estate rubble. I know that investors will cherry pick and to drive hard deals to profit. I wonder if that leaves us, the taxpayers, to buy whats left.... Its all in the oversightThanks for Readingwww.yourpropertypath.comRelated ArticlesNAR: Existing Home Sales ReportShould You Stop Paying Your MortgageStock Market Views On The Housing RecoveryThe Coming Mortgage Debt Reduction Programs
Read more…

NAR Report Third Quarter

Posted by Howard Bell on November 15, 2009 at 9:31am
Sales Up Prices DownThis same story has been playing our for quite a while now. The trend towards lower prices will probably continue even as the recession winds down. Continuing job loss, a weak recovery and real problems in all real estate sectors, now focused on commercial property and Alt A high end homes, should keep a lid on prices. That said people are beginning to feel good again, or at least less wary. They are stepping out and buying homes and that is a good good sign. see chart hereExisting-Home Sales Surge While Price ModerateMost states saw rising existing-home sales in the third quarter, with price declines in many metro areas, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors.NAR reports that total state existing-home sales of single-family and condos, increased 11.4 percent and are now 5.9 percent higher than the third quarter of 2008. Sales increased in 45 states and 28 states saw double-digit gains. Year over year sales were higher in 32 states and D.C. Buyers are coming back and in some parts of California we are seeing multiple bids and homes selling for more than list.During the third quarter, 123 out of 153 metropolitan statistical areas, 2 reported lower median existing single-family home prices while 30 areas had price gainsNAR chief economist,Lawrence Yun spoke of the the tax credit. He goes on to say: We cant underestimate just how powerful a catalyst the first-time home buyer tax credit has been for the housing sector. Its given buyers the confidence they needed to get off the fence and take advantage of extremely affordable housing conditions. The buying conditions this year are the most favorable on record dating back to 1970, but the tax credit is allowing buyers to set aside any reservations about waiting for a better deal.The decline in the national median price has moderated recently, and a shrinking supply of unsold inventory suggests we are getting closer to price stabilization in many areas, but we need a steady stream of financially qualified buyers to further reduce inventory and get us to a self-sustaining market, Yun said.Soaking up supplyForeclosures will continue to come on the market, but rising sales from the expanded tax credit should stabilize home prices by next spring and help to stem future foreclosures. To be sure the numbers are mixed and some areas are experiencing reversals, but over all we are beginning to pull ourselves up out of this slump. As long as we continue to see a Fed willing to support the markets until they are strong enough to stand on their own, we should be able top avoid a double dip. Encouraging was to hear the G20 come out with a continuation of supports. This recovery is still in the hands of policy makers.Thanks for Readingwww.yourpropertypath.comRelated ArticlesHome Values Boosted by Walking ConvenienceThe official figures indicate recession has endedGreen Homes and Sales Trends
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Court Rules Against Lender's Attempt to Cut Out Commission During a Short Sale

Posted by Franklin E. Rodebaugh on October 7, 2009 at 7:08am
This artice was sent to me by one of the MLS services we belong to. The source is: Realty Times - Bob Hunt, NAR DirectorI am certain that this will be of interest to anyone who does Short Sales.One reason that many real estate agents are less than enthusiastic about short sales is that, too often, a commissionectomy may be involved. By demanding a certain amount of net proceeds, the lender effectively cuts the commission that had been stipulated in the listing agreement. (To be sure, since March 1, 2009 Fannie Mae has prohibited its servicers from cutting short-sale commissions below 6%; and, as of August 20, Freddie Mac announced the same policy. But not all loans are held by those agencies.) Brokers and agents should be pleased, then, to learn of a recent court case that awarded a broker's commission when a lender sought to cut it just before closing.Thanks to the legal department of the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) for bringing to our attention the Iowa appellate court case of Stewart v. All States Quality Foods. In that case, All States' lender, Highland Crusader Offshore Partners (Highland), was calling the shots on the short sale.Broker Larry Stewart and Iowa Realty Commercial had a joint listing agreement of a property owned by All States. The listing began in August of 2001, and was extended a number of times thereafter. At some point Larry Stewart Realty became the sole listing agent. The agreement called for a commission of 10% of the first $500,000 of gross sales price.In January of 2003, Stewart found a tenant for the property. The tenant took a five-year lease on the property and also obtained a right of first refusal in the event All States received an acceptable offer during the lease term.By May of 2006, All States' financial difficulties became such that its secured lender, Highland, sent a representative, Harold Kessler, to wind down the business of All States. Shortly thereafter Stewart, who still had a listing, received an offer of $120,000. Under the direction of Kessler, the All States manager signed a counteroffer of $140,000 which was accepted. Stewart prepared a net sheet showing proceeds to the seller of $105,982. On August 1 the tenant exercised its right of first refusal and agreed to purchase the property for $140,000.On August 24, Stewart informed the seller and the lender that the tenant was ready to close. At that time, Highland, the lender, indicated for the first time that it would not accept net proceeds of less than $130,000. Even though Stewart offered to cut his commission by 10%, the lender would not budge. The sale fell through.Stewart filed suit alleging breach of contract and intentional interference with contract. He claimed he was owed a commission because he had provided a ready, willing, and able buyer. The trial court agreed. Highlander filed an appeal.The appellate court affirmed the award. Highlander knew of the listing contract and the commission amount. It certainly had the right to ask Stuart to cut his commission, the appellate court confirmed, but not after the fact of the counteroffer. At the point of counteroffer Highland should have disclosed that they would not release the lien for less than $130,000. By not disclosing that, they misled Stewart into continuing to work on the transaction. The court found that "Kessler and Highland Crusader were engaged in a 'two-step process' of first securing a purchase price and then squeezing out as much net proceeds as possible.Now, this case doesn't mirror the facts of every short-sale commission squeeze, nor does it have authority outside of Iowa. Nonetheless, it presents a commission-reduction scenario that is similar to many short sale situations. Moreover, it may suggest a strategy that will be found useful by attorneys representing brokers and agents who have had the squeeze put on them. nced the same policy. But not all loans are held by those agencies.) Brokers and agents should be pleased, then, to learn of a recent court case that awarded a broker's commission when a lender sought to cut it just before closing.Thanks to the legal department of the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) for bringing to our attention the Iowa appellate court case of Stewart v. All States Quality Foods. In that case, All States' lender, Highland Crusader Offshore Partners (Highland), was calling the shots on the short sale.Broker Larry Stewart and Iowa Realty Commercial had a joint listing agreement of a property owned by All States. The listing began in August of 2001, and was extended a number of times thereafter. At some point Larry Stewart Realty became the sole listing agent. The agreement called for a commission of 10% of the first $500,000 of gross sales price.In January of 2003, Stewart found a tenant for the property. The tenant took a five-year lease on the property and also obtained a right of first refusal in the event All States received an acceptable offer during the lease term.By May of 2006, All States' financial difficulties became such that its secured lender, Highland, sent a representative, Harold Kessler, to wind down the business of All States. Shortly thereafter Stewart, who still had a listing, received an offer of $120,000. Under the direction of Kessler, the All States manager signed a counteroffer of $140,000 which was accepted. Stewart prepared a net sheet showing proceeds to the seller of $105,982. On August 1 the tenant exercised its right of first refusal and agreed to purchase the property for $140,000.On August 24, Stewart informed the seller and the lender that the tenant was ready to close. At that time, Highland, the lender, indicated for the first time that it would not accept net proceeds of less than $130,000. Even though Stewart offered to cut his commission by 10%, the lender would not budge. The sale fell through.Stewart filed suit alleging breach of contract and intentional interference with contract. He claimed he was owed a commission because he had provided a ready, willing, and able buyer. The trial court agreed. Highlander filed an appeal.The appellate court affirmed the award. Highlander knew of the listing contract and the commission amount. It certainly had the right to ask Stuart to cut his commission, the appellate court confirmed, but not after the fact of the counteroffer. At the point of counteroffer Highland should have disclosed that they would not release the lien for less than $130,000. By not disclosing that, they misled Stewart into continuing to work on the transaction. The court found that "Kessler and Highland Crusader were engaged in a 'two-step process' of first securing a purchase price and then squeezing out as much net proceeds as possible.Now, this case doesn't mirror the facts of every short-sale commission squeeze, nor does it have authority outside of Iowa. Nonetheless, it presents a commission-reduction scenario that is similar to many short sale situations. Moreover, it may suggest a strategy that will be found useful by attorneys representing brokers and agents who have had the squeeze put on them.
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