oregon (7)

We would like to introduce you to our home buyer specialist, Bethany Alexander, Realtor® serving the Oregon, Wisconsin area!

Dane County WI Real Estate
"I am excited to be a part of the Rock Realty team to help expand their services throughout Dane County. I am originally from Corpus Christi, Texas, but have lived in Oregon Wisconsin for the past 20+ years. As a long-time resident of Oregon and an Oregon High School graduate I have an in depth understanding of the area which will assist me in helping you to select a home location that best suites your family’s needs."
"As a Rock Realty real estate agent, I use the latest tools available to help advertise, broadening the range of qualified buyers for your property. It is my top priority to educate and help guide you through the exciting and sometimes stressful process of buying or selling a home. I truly care about my clients and their needs and will work hard for you to ensure that your experience with buying or selling a home is as simple and stress free as possible. If you are looking for a Realtor® to put your individual needs first, look no further, call me today to discuss what I can do to help you with your real estate needs."
If you are looking to buy or sell anywhere in Dane County, I'd love to help!
Bethany Alexander
Real Estate Agent/Realtor®
608-212-4101 (cell)
Search the MLS via my site:


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A quick summary:

2012 finished strong ending up 8.8% over 2011 when measuring by average Price Per Sq. Ft. and 11.7 % when measuring by average sale price. There are reports of 15% so I want to clarify that my reports are based on the following:

Residential Single Family Residences under 1 acre in Bend

I exclude the following from the report: Townhomes, Condos, all manufactured homes, lot size over an acre.

Number of sales is up by 17.5% and home size is on the rise again. See table 1

Average sale price as a percentage of original list price remains strong at 95%.

Sale price as a percentage of current list price remains strong at 98.3%. Table 2

There are 7 charts total and 2 tables. Each designed to give a unique perspective of our market. Charts 3 6 and 7 show the most drastic change in my mind but I’ll let you judge them for yourself.


Unless something drastic happens which seems to be increasingly possible these days and if current inventory trends continue, expect 2013 to be another strong year for Real Estate in Bend as the rest of the story continues to be the shrinking supply of inventory… Speaking of which, we’ll take a look at inventory trends next report.

Below is a quick summary. Certainly take a look at the charts to see the trends and historical data to put it all into context.

FYI: last report all trends were up except for number of sales 3rd quarter over 2nd quarter

View charts and tables attached to see more detailed reports

Price/sq ft

4th Quarter 2012 over 4th Quarter 2011: UP                  

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012  Even                  

2012 YTD over 2011.                                    UP

Home Size

4th Quarter 2012 over 4th Quarter 2011:  UP

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012:  UP

Number of Sales

4th Quarter 2012 over 4th Quarter 2011:    UP           

4th Quarter 2012 over 3rd Quarter 2012:   Down              

Many sources quote Median sale price and/or average sale price. View the tables to see how these values can paint a different picture of the market.

View charts and tables to see other market measures:


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List-to-sold ratios dove into negative territory in December. December List-to-sold ratios tend to be the lowest of the year anyway but this is the first time since starting this project in 2007 we have witnessed a monthly average in negative territory.

    Admittedly one month out of over sixty is but a blip on the radar screen. Even so it is a pretty big drop along a very long downward trend.  

Chart 1 shows the long downward trend over several years and the dive to negative territory very well. Chart 2 depicts the gradual downward shift from year to year that has been occurring since 2009.

        In years past, we typically see list to sold ratios begin an upward trend in January, leading to inventory build in spring however, the long-term trend is down so unless something drastic happens, expect inventory in the next month or two to either increase as it does seasonally but at a much lower pace or maybe, just maybe it will continue its downward slide.

    Upward pressure on sale prices has a pretty strong hold for the time being. Speaking of sale prices, I’ll have final results for 2012 complete in about a week.

See list to Sold Charts inventory charts and price trend charts:


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We typically expect MLS inventory in the 4th to quarter begin dropping but boy howdy, inventory levels really dropped this year! We are at the lowest level since starting this project in 2009 and on a long-term downward trajectory in all three segments of sale type.

To see a graphic illustration of this trend view the charts and tables:  http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Reminder: the charts and tables do not include bare land, multi-family homes, time shares or mobile homes without land.

Bank Owned (REO) inventory remains but a fraction of total inventory in Bend and Redmond. Total REO inventory is down approx. 85% below peak levels.

Future availability of this segment remains uncertain as government intervention and the developing reluctance of lenders/servicers to foreclose in the first place or release for sale their current inventory has slowed the flow of these properties to the market.

The continuing saga of the fate and actual size of this “shadow inventory” I believe will continue to be shrouded in uncertainty for quite some time. What we do know, is most homes for sale in this segment sell quickly.

Short sale inventory continues the long-term slide as well. Total Short Sale inventory is also down approx. 85% below peak levels.

The Mortgage Debt Relief Forgiveness Act expires in just a few weeks and may have slowed down this segment. Most “experts” believe the act will be extended and retroactive if extended after the deadline.

Of potentially equal importance I believe, in my face to face experience with most distressed home-owners they have no intention of short selling or even letting go of their homes in any way. What happens with the distressed homeowner segment whether it is short selling, foreclosure, loan re-modification or some other form of settlement will be pivotal to future market direction.   

“Non-Distressed”/“Traditional” Inventory is roughly half of what it was at peak levels since starting this project in 2009. The downward trend is less pronounced than short sales and REO but a significant downward trend nonetheless. An overwhelming percentage of this segment experiences long marketing times, expirations and terminations as most list prices continue to be misaligned with what current market conditions will bear.

Looking forward, we are right in the middle of the seasonal low inventory period and typically expect tighter supplies in the coming months. The list-to-sold ratios however, indicate future MLS inventory will fall below seasonal levels of the past 3 yrs.http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

We are also near the typical end of year jump in expirations which will put a big, typically short-term dent in inventory if this is a typical year. Whatever that is these days!

Final Thoughts

Our market has definitely strengthened. Some might argue it is an artificial development while others will argue it is a sign of recovery. What can be said for certain is we have experienced a long-term and significant trend of declining inventory accompanied by price firming and appreciation in many areas throughout Bend, Redmond and Central Oregon.

Supply is tight and appears this will be the case at least in the near-term.

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!

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List to Sold Ratios Continue to Improve

Made some changes to the charts to make it easier to see trends as well as changes in variation; change is definitely apparent.

List to sold ratios continue their long-term decline. Down in 2012 from 2011; down the last 3 months as we near the fourth quarter a time when, since 2007 (except 2009) they drop even further.  2012 has already seen the lowest list to sold ratios since the beginning of this project in 2007. If the 4th quarter trend repeats expect even lower ratios and consequently lower inventory levels in the months to come in central Oregon.

Getting back on my variation soap box again, variation has drastically decreased as well, meaning our little Real Estate process here in Central Oregon is getting closer and closer to some semblance of predictability, at least for now anyway J

I completed the July Sales data but didn’t report it. If you have time, wander over to the website and check it out. July sales were pretty impressive.  I don’t usually get real excited about monthly reporting because they can be so see-saw; instead we have strong looking upward trend.

The table shows a strong 3rd quarter for appreciation so far in average, median and price/ sq ft price measures.

For a more comprehensive understanding of our market see additional charts and tables covering inventory, sale and list prices etc.:


Also now on:


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What will 2010 Bring for Portland Oregon?

Okay kid’s here’s the skinny. 2010 What will it bring? If you are looking to make a move in Real Estate in the Portland Metro Market you are probably in what I would consider your perfect window. Price’s are going to continue to creep down as Seller’s compete against REO and Short Sales for Buyer’s.Interest Rates today are amazing. Under 5%, with good credit! Rates are probably as low as they are going to get because it wouldn’t be profitable to the lender’s to go any cheaper. Looking around I see the price of gas going up and we should be at $3 a gallon shortly. To me, that says inflation. Inflation says to the FED that they need to raise the Prime Rate in order to control it. It’s not their only tool but at some point lending at 1/4 % will end. Now, this is something that they do not want to do, but at some point in 2010 they will have to. Once this occurs and your rates go up, the buying power that is available today will decrease. There’s really only one reaction that can occur; prices will get pushed down again.I know that no one wants to hear that housing values are going to continue to fall, but unless people get pay raises in conjunction with the upcoming interest rate increases, the Buyer’s buying power will decrease. For example; if you can afford a $1,500 mortgage PITI, and the rates go up, you can’t afford more you just have to buy a cheaper house. For example at 5% interest $10,000 borrowed will cost you approximately 5.02. If interest rates are at 6% and now that $10,000 cost you $6.27. You still make what you make so your buying power is weakened. If you’re a Seller and the Buyer’s have been pushed out of your price range what are you going to do? Lower the price down to where the Buyer’s can again afford your home. So, I think that prices will continue to get pushed down some more. I just don’t see a different solution, but nothing would please me more than to be wrong.I’ve said a mouthful let's get some feedback and help us all have a better 2010. How hard could that be? ;0P
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WOW - First Blog!

I feel compelled to write after reading the "Ask the Expert" article. It mirrors my feelings about many things, but mostly the big WHY of why I went into Real Estate in the first place, and the WHY of who I currently work with.But it leaves me with a question as well.........If you are not honest about why you work you only deceive yourself. We work to make money to take care of and protect those we love. As a lifelong entrepreneur who has been in construction and sales - I work to help people. For the most part I work professions that allow me to express myself, help people, and yes make money. I know deep down I can become rich if I help enough people. I can square that with myself and my God all day long. I celabrate my 1 year anniversary with Keller Williams today after working with what used to be a bigger company for 5 years. Keller Williams has been life changing for me in that they believe in having the best of the best - teach the rest. They share, they know there is enough for all and no one person or company will ever take over the market and keep it all to themselves.So I have built relationships in and out of my office. I have a buyers agent, a transaction manager, and many vendors who all have the same goal, service. We get paid when the job is complete. It is a fact that I now make less money per transaction because of the group concept. But it is also true that I am now freed up to do what I do best. I trust each of them and we work on an asset by asset basis - we are independent agents who have banded together to enhance our areas of competence. In all of that - I find I now do a much better job for our clients because I can focus more on their needs instead of paperwork.I am going to a REO/BPO convention soon in Texas and am looking forward to the experience bigtime. I am not a wall flower or shy person but wonder... I am going to network(impress and get more business). I know they have needs I can meet and exceed(compared to what I see being done currently). I know that what I/WE do gets homes sold quicker. I know there are few AM's compared to the many Vendors(me) who want more business- I also know tackling and shoving my card in their pocket will not get the results I want. I am a bit concerned as to how I can be different than my competition at the convention, be noticed, get business - with a servant mindset not violating my principles. More later....
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