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List-to-sold ratios dove into negative territory in December. December List-to-sold ratios tend to be the lowest of the year anyway but this is the first time since starting this project in 2007 we have witnessed a monthly average in negative territory.

    Admittedly one month out of over sixty is but a blip on the radar screen. Even so it is a pretty big drop along a very long downward trend.  

Chart 1 shows the long downward trend over several years and the dive to negative territory very well. Chart 2 depicts the gradual downward shift from year to year that has been occurring since 2009.

        In years past, we typically see list to sold ratios begin an upward trend in January, leading to inventory build in spring however, the long-term trend is down so unless something drastic happens, expect inventory in the next month or two to either increase as it does seasonally but at a much lower pace or maybe, just maybe it will continue its downward slide.

    Upward pressure on sale prices has a pretty strong hold for the time being. Speaking of sale prices, I’ll have final results for 2012 complete in about a week.

See list to Sold Charts inventory charts and price trend charts:

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

We typically expect MLS inventory in the 4^th to quarter begin dropping but boy howdy, inventory levels really dropped this year! We are at the lowest level since starting this project in 2009 and on a long-term downward trajectory in all three segments of sale type.

To see a graphic illustration of this trend view the charts and tables:  http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Reminder: the charts and tables do not include bare land, multi-family homes, time shares or mobile homes without land.

Bank Owned (REO) inventory remains but a fraction of total inventory in Bend and Redmond. Total REO inventory is down approx. 85% below peak levels.

Future availability of this segment remains uncertain as government intervention and the developing reluctance of lenders/servicers to foreclose in the first place or release for sale their current inventory has slowed the flow of these properties to the market.

The continuing saga of the fate and actual size of this “shadow inventory” I believe will continue to be shrouded in uncertainty for quite some time. What we do know, is most homes for sale in this segment sell quickly.

Short sale inventory continues the long-term slide as well. Total Short Sale inventory is also down approx. 85% below peak levels.

The Mortgage Debt Relief Forgiveness Act expires in just a few weeks and may have slowed down this segment. Most “experts” believe the act will be extended and retroactive if extended after the deadline.

Of potentially equal importance I believe, in my face to face experience with most distressed home-owners they have no intention of short selling or even letting go of their homes in any way. What happens with the distressed homeowner segment whether it is short selling, foreclosure, loan re-modification or some other form of settlement will be pivotal to future market direction.   

“Non-Distressed”/“Traditional” Inventory is roughly half of what it was at peak levels since starting this project in 2009. The downward trend is less pronounced than short sales and REO but a significant downward trend nonetheless. An overwhelming percentage of this segment experiences long marketing times, expirations and terminations as most list prices continue to be misaligned with what current market conditions will bear.

Looking forward, we are right in the middle of the seasonal low inventory period and typically expect tighter supplies in the coming months. The list-to-sold ratios however, indicate future MLS inventory will fall below seasonal levels of the past 3 yrs.http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

We are also near the typical end of year jump in expirations which will put a big, typically short-term dent in inventory if this is a typical year. Whatever that is these days!

Final Thoughts

Our market has definitely strengthened. Some might argue it is an artificial development while others will argue it is a sign of recovery. What can be said for certain is we have experienced a long-term and significant trend of declining inventory accompanied by price firming and appreciation in many areas throughout Bend, Redmond and Central Oregon.

Supply is tight and appears this will be the case at least in the near-term.

Merry Christmas!!!!!!!!

Made some changes to the charts to make it easier to see trends as well as changes in variation; change is definitely apparent.

List to sold ratios continue their long-term decline. Down in 2012 from 2011; down the last 3 months as we near the fourth quarter a time when, since 2007 (except 2009) they drop even further.  2012 has already seen the lowest list to sold ratios since the beginning of this project in 2007. If the 4^th quarter trend repeats expect even lower ratios and consequently lower inventory levels in the months to come in central Oregon.

Getting back on my variation soap box again, variation has drastically decreased as well, meaning our little Real Estate process here in Central Oregon is getting closer and closer to some semblance of predictability, at least for now anyway J

I completed the July Sales data but didn’t report it. If you have time, wander over to the website and check it out. July sales were pretty impressive.  I don’t usually get real excited about monthly reporting because they can be so see-saw; instead we have strong looking upward trend.

The table shows a strong 3^rd quarter for appreciation so far in average, median and price/ sq ft price measures.

For a more comprehensive understanding of our market see additional charts and tables covering inventory, sale and list prices etc.:

http://www.centralorproperty.com/Central,ORTrends.html

Also now on:

http://centralorhomesales.com/inventory.asp