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New Employment Numbers has Negative Impact on Mortgage Rates

The recent good news for the job market had a less than desired effect on mortgage rates. Thanks to signs of an improvement in the economy the recent reports stating more people are back to work had an almost immediate impact on trading in the stock market. For years economists have pointed out the inverse relation between home mortgage rates and the general health of the economy. Usually, when investors are worried about risk, they will avoid the stock market and invest more money in to bonds and mortgage backed securities. This flow of cash makes the rates drive lower. However, when times are good and investors rush to the stock market, the opposite effect is felt.

But the Sky is Not Falling

However, this does not mean that any improvement in the stock market will automatically push mortgage rates up. And it also does not mean that the mortgage rates will move dramatically one way or the other. For example, back in the year 2007 the average 30 fixed rate hovered between 6.325% and 6.625%. Now, for the past 3 months, the average rate has moved between 4.345% and 3.875%. This shows roughly a 2% change in rates over the course of 5 years. Mortgage rates do move with the ebb and flow of the economy, but it is rare to see drastic jumps or drops.

What Does this Mean for Homeowners and Potential Homebuyers?

If the economy continues to slowly improve, this means that we may indeed have seen the lowest rates ever. Homeowners that have been wavering between refinancing and hoping for a slightly better rate would be well advised to lock in a rate suitable for their needs.

At the same time, potential homebuyers who are wondering if rates could possibly get any lower may wish to go ahead and put out a contract on a home. Locking in a good rate now for 30 or 60 days could provide a small cushion against any small uptick that will likely come in the next few weeks.

Locking in a Loan

Fortunately, the costs for doing a mortgage loan are still relatively low. Combined with the modest amount to lock in a loan, this is a great time to secure a solid rate. Most lenders are seeing quite a bit of pressure to keep the costs down so it is highly unlikely that the expense of ate locking will jump any time soon. Keep in mind that the current rates are around 3.875%. Rates cannot go to zero because that would mean the lenders are not making any money. Sooner or later, rates will go back up. How high will they go? That is the proverbial “big question” that no one really has an answer for at the moment. Better to get in on the low rates while you can rather than kicking yourself for waiting and missing out.

Original Post - Mortgage Rates Rise on new Employment Numbers

Using FHA 203K Loan to Purchase a Fixer-Upper

Across Wisconsin there are a large number of short sale homes available to buyers.  A short sale is a home being sold for an amount less than the existing mortgage balance.  These homes often have a few cosmetic repairs that need to be made in order to make the home more presentable, if not safe.  For years the issue of repairing a home prior to purchase was a catch 22.  The bank or seller was not willing to spend extra money on a home that they are selling.  The buyer could not make the repairs because they did not legally own the home.  The FHA 203k loan solves that problem with ease.

Two Kinds of Loans

The Federal Housing Authority (FHA) offers a loan called the 203k mortgage, named after the code section where the loan is found in the FHA guidelines.  This loan is offered as a Streamline version and the regular version.  The streamline was designed to offer lower amounts designated for repairs and slightly less paperwork.  Both loans are ideal for Wisconsin homebuyers who wish to purchase a home in need of some repairs.

How the Loan Works

The loan program allows buyers to purchase a home based on the sales price.  In addition, the buyers can borrow extra money to make the necessary repairs. Once the loan is approved and closed, the extra money is placed in an escrow account.  The contractor that is doing the work will receive payment once the work is completed. This protects the borrower and the lender against problems with the repair process.

The amount needed for repairs is added to the loan for the purchase and the homebuyer makes one payment, at one interest rate, on the entire loan.  Since mortgage rates are so cheap right now it is a wonderful way to buy a home that may be priced below market value due to some simple fix-ups.

Loan Amounts

The Streamline 203k loan will allow Wisconsin homebuyers to borrow a minimum of $5,000 and a maximum of $35,000 to be used towards the repairs.  The regular 203k loan allows much more as a percentage of the sales price and the estimated appraised value after the proposed repairs have been made.  The regular 203k loan will need the involvement of an appraiser, home contractor and loan officer from the very beginning to make sure the loan and repairs meet the guidelines of the program

What Can be Done with 203k?

Wisconsin homebuyers often ask about the types of repairs that can be done with the Streamline 203k program.  The following list shows some of the more popular tasks accomplished using this type of loan

• New gutters and a new roof
• New Heating and air conditioning system or repairs to the existing system
• Plumbing updates and repairs
• Electrical updates and repairs
• Bath and kitchen remodels, to a lesser extent
• New flooring of any type; wood, carpet, tile
• Painting for both exterior and the interior
• New windows and doors
• Energy efficient appliances

The 203K loan allows many types of repairs and improvements that can greatly enhance the value of a home and give buyers a chance to purchase a place at a savings. This loan is ideal for Wisconsin short sales or foreclosures.

Original Post - Using a FHA 203K Mortgage for Rehab

This communication is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon by you. Rock Realty is not a mortgage lender and so you should contact a FHA lender directly to learn more about its mortgage products and your eligibility for such products.

Understanding the No Money down USDA Mortgage

Buying a home in Wisconsin with no down payment is still a reality thanks to the USDA program.  The Rural Development section of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has made great strides in the past two years to educate loan officers and potential borrowers of the benefits of this program.  The mortgage offered by the USDA is quite different from other programs and is a great way for people to purchase a home without a costly down payment.

Mortgage Insurance

Unlike conventional loans and FHA loans, the USDA loan does not require any mortgage insurance.  This means that every dollar of every payment is going towards the principal, the interest or the escrow for the home.

Closing Costs Paid by Seller

A conventional loan allows the seller to pay closing costs up to 3% of the purchase price.  Similarly, FHA will allow the seller to pay closing costs up to 6% of the purchase price.  However, USDA has no limit on the amount that can be paid by the seller.  This means it is possible to find a house and purchase it without paying a down payment or any closing costs.

Property Location

In order to be considered for the USDA loan a home must be located in an area designated as rural by the USDA.  However, would it surprise you to learn that of the 72 counties listed in Wisconsin, 50 of those counties are considered rural?  And the remaining 22 counties have sections that are considered rural. This means that there are numerous homes that could be eligible for this type of loan.

Income Limits

There are also some limits on the person’s income.  The USDA bases the limits on the total number of people that will occupy a home.  For example, a family made up of a mom, dad, and three children under the age of 18 will be allowed more income than just a married couple.  A Wisconsin loan officer can look up the limits for each county and let you know if you meet the guidelines.

Loan Limits

The maximum amount allowed for a USDA loan is different for each county in Wisconsin.  However, the limits are very liberal.  Some counties, such as Ozaukee and Dane, will allow qualifying borrowers to get a loan up to $230,000.

Not For Select Buyers

Some people are under the impression that the USDA loan is only for Wisconsin borrowers looking for their first home.  However, nothing could be further from the truth.  People buying their first home or their fifth home can use the USDA loan.  The only stipulation is that the property must be the borrower’s primary residence.

It has been mentioned in the news a lot in the past three years that mortgage rates are at an all-time low.  When rates are so low it is only a matter of time before they start to rise.  Take the opportunity to talk to a Wisconsin loan officer and find out if you can get a home using the USDA loan.

This communication is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon by you. Rock Realty is not a mortgage lender and so you should contact a USDA lender directly to learn more about its mortgage products and your eligibility for such products.

Original Post - Understanding the No Money Down USDA Mortgage

Qualifying for VA Mortgage

For Wisconsin residents that have previously served our country in the armed forces or in the reserves, the VA mortgage is a great way to purchase a home.  This loan is offered to qualified veterans with no money down and no mortgage insurance, making it very affordable.  And the rules for determining who is eligible are quite liberal as well.

Minimum Service Times

People who have served in the Coast Guard, Navy, Marine Corps, Air Force or Army can be considered eligible for a VA loan if they have been discharged and met at least one of the following service times

• At least 181 days of military service during peacetime
• At least 90 days of military service during wartime.

This rule is slightly different for people that enlisted past September 7, 1980 as well as any officer whose service began past October 16, 1981.  For these people they must have completed 24 months of service.

Current Enlisted Military

People that are currently enlisted in full duty for one of the branches of the armed forces can also use the VA mortgage.  After the person has completed 90 days of active service they can apply for a loan.

Service Time for Reserves

Wisconsin residents who have served in the various reserve branches can also be eligible for a VA mortgage.  This applies to any of the Reserve components established with the Marine Corps, Army, Air Force, or Navy as well as the Air National Guard, Coast Guard Reserves and Army National Guard.  For these people they must serve at least 6 years in their chosen Reserve before they are eligible for the VA certificate.

Benefits for Spouses

The spouses of veterans who perished in wartime may also be eligible to apply for a VA mortgage loan. The person would have to meet the other requirements regarding credit and income in order to be approved for the mortgage.

Other Exceptions

There quite a few exceptions for veterans who were not able to complete the minimum service requirements.  If you fall in to one of these categories then you may also be eligible for a Wisconsin VA loan.

• Any person that became disabled during service and received a discharge due to the disability
• People who were discharged after completing only 20 months of a 2 year agreement may be eligible if their discharge was at the convenience of the federal government.
• Discharged due to a personal hardship and have completed either the 181 days in peace or 90 days in war
• Discharged due to a pre-existing medical issue and the person completed either the 181 days in peace or 90 days in war

As you can see from the previous listing, several different people that have served in the military can be eligible for a VA mortgage.  With rates so low, it is a great time to buy a home in Wisconsin and enjoy low payments for years to come.

This communication is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon by you. Rock Realty is not a mortgage lender and so you should contact a VA lender directly to learn more about its mortgage products and your eligibility for such products.

Original Post - Qualifying for VA Mortgage

50% of Homes with Mortgages now Underwater


I came across the video below and was shocked to hear that nearly 50% (half) of the nations homeowners are effectively underwater. In times like these, it's important to know that there is help available. If you are a home owner that is struggling to make mortgage payments, I would first suggest that you talk with your bank. They may be able to offer you a few different options. They can sometimes lower your interest rate, offer you a forbearance, or even roll your past due amounts into the mortgage principal.

In the event that you need to sell your home due to your financial situation, I would be happy to discuss if a short sale might work for you. This is a process in which we work with your bank to sell your home for less than you owe on the mortgage. Does your home qualify for a short sale? Fill out our Short Sale Home Evaluation Form to find out.

Today I got a call from an agent about a short sale I have listed. In talking I mentioned the current owner is not in default to which he countered "but he must be." I am here to tell you from experience, from closings, from approvals in my hand your client does not have to be in default to obtain an approval for a short sale. If the mortgage co tells you they must be ask them to show you in writing where this is their policy so you can show your client 9 out of 10 can't and this will get you past this hurrdle..
Myth #2, I get all the time, "once I short sale I can't get a mortgage to buy for some time." INCORRECT!! In July of 2011 I executed and closed a short sale on my listing and the same client was approved to purchase a new home and closed 3 weeks later. There is no rule that says you can't, if you keep your current mortgage current and the person negotiating your short sale gets an approval that say lender is going to except short sale as mortgage paid in full. We supplied the payoff (actually both it was a first and second) and credit showed always paid on time client upgraded to bigger and better house for same payment and maintained good credit.
This point brings me to myth #3 "it doesn't save me any to short sale I should let my house go and save my money."  NO NO NO! See above scenario if you bide your time and pay payments till your agent can negotiate a short sale for you, you can save your credit by paying your payments and getting that payoff showing paid zero balance! Just because a bank didn't go after your friend for his foreclosed home doesn't mean they won't come after you and garnish your wages, freeze your bank accounts, or harass you till you can't stand it any more. Problems don't just go away a short sale is a proactive solution to an economy induced problem.
Myth#4 I make to much money I will not get granted a short sale....you can make 500k a year and still be granted a short sale on your house and here is why. You bought 123 Apple St for 700k 4 years ago now it's worth 200k as it stands with you in it, looking nice and clean and put together. HOWEVER if 123 Apple street is foreclosed and then has chance to be stripped down or vandalized the bank knows it will then only be worth 100k so they are better off letting you short sale then risking another foreclosure on their books which will be supported when appraiser goes out and does BPO. This also disproves myth#5 that "I owe way to much compared to what home will sell for bank will never do it." I closed a home that had a $750k loan on it but appraised only for $295 so bank allowed the short sale after they did their bpo and we sent copy of FHA appraisal.
Myth 6 my agent is a "short sale expert" I'm here to say I have been doing short sales since 2006, I was taught by a bank how to structure and execute them and still I am not an expert and I'll tell you why. You can not be an expert at something that changes with every file, every day. You can be very good, you can be excellent but not an expert. There is no such animal for short sales.. I give the example that a short sale is like a snow flake, every single one is different! I have closed one in two weeks YES TWO WEEKS but in the same token I have had one take eight months. The eight monther was a first and second for a divorced couple with a husband that claimed bk on the second but none the less it took eight months to get to closing. I am great at them and many others are too but be wary of the self proclaimed expert as often they over promise and underperform.
These are all just my experiences as stated earlier there are many others out there and every file differs but I think education is important as many agents are telling people they can't when in fact they just don't know yet that they can! :-)

This call will also target owners and renters that are occupying homes at risk of foreclosure. More important, it cost almost nothing to educate hundreds if not thousands of people at on time.   Our first call was a success and we are looking to partner with agents around the country to do more. Please listen to the audio of the first call, in which 50 people attended.  This is better than any workshop I've held or seen when it comes to foreclosure.  May 25th, 2011 Audio

"The only way to bring about stabilization to our neighborhoods is to get valuable information out to the people that need it most. Workshops are not working." said Broker and CEO, Jonathan G Burgess. Burgess has overseen the sale of over four hundred foreclosed homes and short-sales over the last 3 years throughout the company’s California offices. Neighborhood property values, cities, counties and utility providers suffer the most when the wrong decisions are made by the occupants of these homes. Code 3 Realty & Mortgage Inc. has made equipping individuals with the necessary information to make the right decision concerning their situations a top priority.

Many real estate companies are hosting workshops for distressed homeowners to get much-needed foreclosure prevention information, however attendance to those events is usually low. “I’m not surprised attendance is low because this is a sensitive topic and can be embarrassing for many” said Burgess. "The majority of home owners struggling to keep their homes would rather not attend an open forum to discuss foreclosure. Telephone conferences are a discrete alternative."

Owners and renters can get valuable, free information about programs and options to assist them by joining these conference calls. This information must get out if we are going to bring about stability to our economy and restore property values in neighborhoods.

The first conference will begin on Wednesday, May 25th, 2011 at 7:00pm -7:30 pm.

Join our Group ON REO PRO Today!!

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.95 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending February 24, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 5.0 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.05 percent. .

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.27 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.8 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.87 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.16 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.40 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.39 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.15 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Fixed mortgage rates eased again this holiday week amid mixed inflation data reports. Although the core consumer price index for January rose slightly above the market consensus, house prices fell 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index In addition, the level of the index was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2002

Low mortgage rates and home prices are sustaining affordability in the housing market. Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in January and were at the strongest pace in eight months, the National Association of Realtors reported; only the Northeast region experienced a slowdown in sales

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.0 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 17, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 5.05 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.93 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.27 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.33 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.87 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.92 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.12 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.39 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.35 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.23 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Fixed mortgage rates eased slightly this week and continue to be very affordable. Prior to 2009, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had never been at 5 percent since our survey began in April 1971. In both 1981 and 1982, the rates were over three times as high as they are today.

The housing market is struggling to regain traction despite still historically low rates. New construction on one-family homes dipped slightly in January to an annualized pace of 413,000 units, which was the fewest number since May 2009. In addition, homebuilder confidence didnt improve for the third consecutive month in February.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 10, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.19 percent

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.

For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while Januarys unemployment ate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005. As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.80 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 27, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.74 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.09 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.39 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: A veraged 3.70 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.25 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: A veraged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.29 percent. 

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates followed bond yields a little higher this week amid positive data reports from  The Conference Board that suggest the economy is strengthening. The index of leading indicators rose 1.0 percent in December, nearly twice that of the market consensus forecast and represented the sixth consecutive monthly increase, according to the Board. They also reported a stronger gain in consumer confidence for January, rising to an eight-month high. In addition, the share of households who said jobs were plentiful rose to the highest level since May 2009.

Consumer demand in the housing market is also showing some positive gains. Sales of  existing homes  rose in December to the strongest pace since May and sales of  new homes jumped to the highest since April. At their current sales rate, the expected time on the market fell from 9.5 to 8.l months for existing houses and fell from 8.4 to 6.9 months for new home

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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 13, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.77 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.45 percent

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.32 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.39 percent

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment report , which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery. Fixed mortgage rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low.

In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment. In addition, the outlooks for residential real estate were mixed, with contacts in most Districts described as expecting continued weak conditions

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.86 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending December 30, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.20 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.54 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Interest rates on fixed mortgages and the 5 year Hybrid ARM rose slightly over the holiday week, but were still below the years highs set in the first half of 2010. For the year as a whole, 30 year fixed mortgage rates averaged just below 4.7 percent, which represented the lowest annual average since 1955 when secondary market yields on FHA mortgages were above 4.6 percent and the average price of a home was $22,000. Recent news on housing markets has been mixed. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index fell 0.99 percent in October, in line with other reports showing a softening in house prices since mid year. Home sales continue to recover in the months following the expiration of the Home buyer Tax Credit, however, with sales of new and existing homes up 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, in November

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