mortgage (114)



30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.57 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 8, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.58 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.20 percent. This rate is yet another all-time low in Freddie Mac’s 39-year survey.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.07 percent with an average 0.7 point , up from last week when it averaged 4.04 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.69 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.79 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent. This rate is also an all-time low since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 2005.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent.

Freddie Sayz

With mortgage rates falling to historic lows, refinance activity has been strong over the past three months, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the effective mortgage rate of all loans outstanding was just below six percent in the first quarter of 2010, the lowest since the series began in 1977. Since the start of the second quarter, two out of three mortgage applications on average were for refinancing, according the Mortgage Bankers Association .

Household balance sheets also improved in other ways over the first three months of the year. The Federal Reserve reported household net worth rose by almost $1.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2010. The share of credit card loans that were 30-days or more past due fell to the lowest since first quarter of 2002, according to the American Bankers Association . Finally, the aggregate household debt burdens were at a level not seen since the third quarter of 2000.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/07/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009

Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.

Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30% compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/07/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009

Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.

Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30% compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.58 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 1, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.69 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.32 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.04 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.77 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.79 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.84 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.88 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.77 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.94 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages and the 5 year hybrid ARM fell once again to all time record lows this week in a period where the economy struggles to gain momentum and inflation remains very low, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Growth estimates for first quarter GDP were revised down by a half percentage point over the past two months to 2.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis . Annual inflation, as measured by the 12 month change in the core CPI, held at 0.9 percent in April and May, which is the slowest pace in over 44 years, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics .

Meanwhile, house prices are improving due in part to the homebuyer tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city home price index grew 0.4 percent between March and April and was up 3.9 percent from April 2009, representing the largest annual gain since October 2006. Moreover, 17 of the metropolitan areas experienced monthly gains in April, compared to 10 in March and six in February

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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Refinance Index: increased 12.6 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 22, 2009.

Purchase Index: decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 76.8 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.

Arm Share: decreased to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.

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Today I was doing a few more drive bys, and I noticed sooo many for sale signs and foreclosed properties literally in just one street. Then about 2 blocks down only a few signs were visible.

Sometimes I think these mortgage companies prefer to hit one specific area and just wipe them out all at once. Is there an advantage for them when they do this?

Are they trying to get rid of the current homeowners to bring in a whole new different type of community?

If this is the case, then how are the realtors supposed to market these homes when their clients come to the neighborhood and see all these signs up?

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/23/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.0 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: decreased 7.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased to 73.8 percent of total applications from 74.8 percent the previous week.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 74.8 percent of total applications from 72.2 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since the week ending December 18, 2009

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.69 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 24, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.75 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.42 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.87 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.84 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.89 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.99 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.82 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.93 percent. This is the lowest the 1-year ARM has been since the week ending May 6, 2004 when it averaged 3.76 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Mortgage rates for all but traditional 1-year ARMs hit all time record lows this week in our survey while activity in the housing market slowed in May following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Freddie Mac began collecting rates for 30 year fixed loans in April 1971, 15-year fixed mortgages in September 1991 and 5-year hybrid ARMs in January 2005.

The record low for traditional 1 year ARMs of 3.36 percent occurred during the week of March 25, 2004. Both new and existing home sales showed unexpected declines in May. Existing sales fell 2.2 percent, compared to the market consensus forecast of a 6.0 percent gain, based on figures published by the National Association of Realtor . Sales of new homes fell 32.7 percent to an annualized rate of 300,000 units, which was the largest monthly drop and slowest pace since records began in 1963, according to the Census Bureau

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Another bail-out plan approved June 23, 2010 by the ObamaAdministration, the "Keep Your Home" program. California will receive$699.6 million to "work with lenders" to make principal reductions.Under the new program, there will be a $50,000 cap on principalforgiveness.

Since property values in Riverside County havedropped 50-60% that leaves the majority of homeowners more than $50,000underwater. But wait! The state will be asking lenders to 'MATCH" theamount the state spends on principal reduction - dollar for dollar!

Thebiggest obstacle I see with this is the success of this program willdepend on the cooperation of the lending industry.

Let's look atthe rest of the bail-out plan. 1.5 billion will be given in all to fivestates; California, Arizonia, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida. Each statewill use their portion of this money differently.

As forCalifornia, it will use its money for principal reduction, mortgagereinstatement, unemployment mortgage assistance, and when all else failsTransition Assistance which is actually a HAFA Short Sale with aone-time payment of up to $5,000 to relocate.

The plan is to takeeffect before November 1, 2010. Hummm, that will give the banks plentyof time to come up with a plan of their own.




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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 12.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday

Refinance Index: decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: decreased 16.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 30.4 percent lower than Memorial Day week last year.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 72.2 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week. This is the first decline in the refinance share in five weeks

Arm Share: decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week, which is the third consecutive weekly decrease.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.72 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 10, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.79 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.59 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.17 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 15-year FRM in August of 1991 and sets another record low for the fourth straight week.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.17 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.91 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.95 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.04 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending May 27, 2004 when it averaged 3.87 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Following a relatively weak employment report, bond yields fell this week and mortgage rates followed, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Private payrolls rose by 41,000 jobs in May, less than a quarter of the market forecast consensus of an 180,000 gain. Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgage hover near the record low set on December 3, 2009 in our survey; the Primary Mortgage Market Survey began in April 1971.

Meanwhile, rates on 15-year fixed mortgages set another record low for the fourth week in a row. Overall, the economy does show signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve reported in its June 9th regional economic review that the economy strengthened in all 12 of its Districts over April and May. It also noted that loan quality was stable or improving in most Districts, but remained an issue for banks with large exposure to real estate

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.79 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending June 3, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.78 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.29 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.20 percent with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it averaged 4.21 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.79 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 15-year FRM in August of 1991 and breaks last week's record low.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.94 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.85 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.95 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 3.95 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.81 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending May 27, 2004 when it averaged 3.87 percent.

Freddie Sayz

The economy grew at a slower rate than originally reported in the first three months of the year, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis , which suggests inflation will remain tame in the near term, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.

As a result, mortgage rates held at historic levels this week. In fact, rates on 15-year fixed rate mortgages set another record low for the third week in a row. There are also signs that credit conditions may be improving. The number of homeowners with private mortgage insurance who became current on their mortgages outnumbered those who defaulted for the third month in a row in April, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier

Refinance Index: increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.

Purchase Index: decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 57.7 percent of total applications from 51.9 percent the previous week

Arm Share: remained unchanged at 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The recent plunge in rates on US Treasury securities, due to a flight to quality as investors worldwide sought shelter from the Greek debt crisis, benefited US mortgage borrowers last week. Rates on 30 year mortgages dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. As a result, refinance applications for conventional loans jumped, hitting their highest level in six weeks, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. In contrast, purchase applications fell almost 10 percent in the first week following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, as the tax credit likely pulled some sales into April that would otherwise have occurred in May or later

Projections
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.93 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 13, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.00 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.86 percent. The 30-year FRM has not been lower since the week ending December 10, 2009, when it averaged 4.81 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.30 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.36 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.52 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since the week ending December 3, 2009 when it averaged 4.27 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.95 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.97 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent. The 5-year ARM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 5-year ARM in January of 2005.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.02 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.07 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.71 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending November 4, 2004, when it averaged 4.00 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Interest rates on fixed rate mortgage declined for the 5th straight week, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. The National Association of Realtors reported that median house prices are recovering in more local areas in the latest quarter. On a year over year basis for the 152 areas the association reports on, 91 metropolitan areas had positive growth in the first quarter of this year. This compares to 67 areas showing positive annual growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 and only 30 cities in the third quarter of last year.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Rates Stable

Rates Mostly Unchanged This Week

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.06 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 29, 2010, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.48 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.00 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.03 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.80 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.22 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.77 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed loans have averaged about 5 percent over the first four months of this year, staying within a band of roughly a quarter percentage point and virtually matching 2009s annual average, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. These low rates have been helping to moderate house price declines over the course of the year.

Prices on existing homes showed a 12-month increase of 0.7 percent in February, which was the first annual increase since December 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city composite index [PDF]. In addition, nine cities experienced positive growth, matching the number in January. Further, the Census Bureaus Constant Quality price index showed that new home prices rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter on an annual basis.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.07 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 22, 2010, unchanged from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.80 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.40 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.48 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.03 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.85 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.22 percent this week with an average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Mortgage rates on fixed loans were relatively unchanged this week while ARM rates were mixed, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. These low mortgage rates are revitalizing the home construction industry. For instance, although new building of one-family homes slowed slightly between February and March by an annualized rate of 0.9 percent, this was primarily due to a 33.7 percent drop in the Midwest.

The other three regions rose to their strongest pace since the second half of 2008. In addition, builder confidence rose more than the market consensus in April to the highest level since September 2009, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index . During the same month, the builder gauge of current home sales increased to its highest since March 2008.

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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 13.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 13.9 percent compared with the previous week.
Treasury rates fell last week causing a decline in mortgage rates. As a result, refinance applications picked up over the week, as some borrowers took advantage of this recent rate volatility to lock in a low fixed-rate loan said Michael Fratantoni, MBA Vice President of Research and Economics.

Refinance Index: increased 15.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 10.1 percent from one week earlier.

Purchase Index: increased 11.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 5.2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 60.0 percent of total applications from 58.9 percent the previous week.

Arm Share: decreased to 6.0 percent from 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Economic growth and a recovering job market are good news for housing, but we certainly have not seen any significant improvement in housing activity to date. Existing home sales declined in February, and new home sales actually reached a new record low that month. Additionally, the number of existing homes on the market increased, as sellers began to list their properties in anticipation of the spring. Rising inventories on top of weak demand continues to put pressure on prices, with most measures showing either declines or weak gains over the winter.

Fourth quarter real GDP growth was revised down a bit to a 5.6% annual rate, a revision too small to be significant. Data coming in during the past month suggest a real GDP growth rate of around 3% or a little less in the first quarter of 2010, well below the fourth quarter pace. The outlook for inflation remains unusually favorable. During the past year, both headline and core inflation rates have fallen.

The dramatic turnaround in the economy during the past year, from a 5.4% annual rate of decline in real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2009 to a 5.6% increase a year later, attests to the remarkable resiliency of the U.S. economy to withstand shocks.

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update


Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 4/14/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 9.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This is the third lowest Market Index recorded in the survey since the end of June 2009.

Refinance Index: decreased 9.0 percent from the previous week, marking the index’s fifth consecutive decline

Purchase Index: decreased 10.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 17.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The decline in purchase applications was driven by government purchase applications, which decreased 19.1 percent from last week, compared to a decrease of 2.0 percent in conventional purchase applications.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 58.9 percent of total applications from 58.7 percent the previous week.
increased to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

Arm Share: increased to 6.2 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Economic growth and a recovering job market are good news for housing, but we certainly have not seen any significant improvement in housing activity to date. Existing home sales declined in February, and new home sales actually reached a new record low that month. Additionally, the number of existing homes on the market increased, as sellers began to list their properties in anticipation of the spring. Rising inventories on top of weak demand continues to put pressure on prices, with most measures showing either declines or weak gains over the winter.

We predict that mortgage originations will fall by about 38 percent to $1.3 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall by around 2 percent to $726 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 126 percent to $604 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year.

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Who's Lending Now

Prices are now up almost 4 percent from the bottom in May 2009, but off 30 percent from May 2006, largely considered the peak of the housing boom. The 20-city index was off just 0.7 percent from this time last year. The smallest decline in almost three years.<br>
<br>
Case Shiller index tells us we are in a bottoming process, where prices will continue to stabilize and attract buyers. However the paper economy chart, comparing the 1990s housing bust to the present makes two points vividly. First, the size of this decline and second, the 1990s bust took eight years to return to normalcy, measured from peak to peak<br>
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Fed says goodby to MBS</span><br>
Interest Rates Going Up<br>
The Fed has been the lender of last resort, buying up paper nobody wanted, providing liquidity to mortgage-backed securities and keeping the whole thing afloat. However, the Fed declares this a self sustaining recovery and financial markets stable and profitable. Private investors, willing to purchase government backed mortgages will requrie higher rates. Its not clear to anyone how much of this mortgage backed debt is viable. Investors will require higher rates for mortgage backed securities to look attractive. Mortgage Bankers association predicts 6% rate years and NAR looks to 6.5% in 2011<br>
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<span style="font-weight: bold;">Fed says Goodby To Tax Credit</span><br>
<span style="font-style: italic;">Sales Driver</span><br>
<br>
The homebuyer tax credit that gives first time home buyers up to an $8000 tax credit and repeat buyers up to $6500 is set to expire the end of April. You must be under contract by April 30th and close by June 30th to qualify. In the short term the homebuyer tax credit and spring markets are bringing buyers to the table. MBA Purchase Applications index rose 6.8% for the week, confirming solid activity.<br>
<br>
<span style="font-weight: bold;">Fed Says Hello Sustainable Recovery</span><br style="font-weight: bold;"><br>
The economy remains in a transitional phase from a period that depended on support of public sector programs to a period of resumed growth based on private spending, aqccording to Dennis Lockhart President of the Atlanta Fed President. Read we are off the lifeline and looking to the markets to gradually act more normally.<br>
<br>
We created jobs! First time in two years, True a total of 160,000 jobs (including temp jobs) is a far cry from the 8 million we have lost, but its solid proof that we are on the right road.<br>
<br>
Rising home prices also could boost consumer optimism. with the tax credit program ending we will likley see lower home prices and higher sales volumn. Prices are reaching equilibrium in some parts of the country, according to moodys.com. Looking at the 1990s-era comparison, even after prices stabilized, housing had a long slog ahead. Our economy is driven by consumer spending, so high unemployment means less consumer spending. <br>
<br>
Home prices and sales volume will be held hostage to the economic recovery and will begin in earnest when job creation does so. On a positive note, with big headwinds in front, we are at the beginning of a long term healing process.<br>
<br>
REsourced from <a href="http://www.yourpropertypath.com">www.yourpropertypath.com</a><br>;
You may republish this article, as long as you do not edit and you agree to preserve all links to the author and <a href="http://www.yourpropertypath.com">www.yourpropertypath.com</a>; <br><br>Related Articles<br><a href="http://yourpropertypath.com/artman2/publish/Current_Market_Conditions/Small_Banks_In_Trouble.shtml"><span class="general_text"><span class="general_text">Small Banks In
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Freddie Mac Weekly Update:


Rates at Second Highest Level This Year


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.08 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 1, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.34 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.52 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.10 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.14 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.92 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.05 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.75 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Interest rates for fixed mortgages rose this week following a run up in long-term bond yields, while ARM rates eased slightly, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Rates on 30-year fixed loans were the highest since the starting week of this year. Home-price declines continue to moderate with more metropolitan areas showing stabilizing or rising values.

Compared with one year ago, house prices were down 0.7 percent in January 2010 in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, which was the smallest 12-month decrease since January 2007. Nine of the cities experienced positive growth, led by San Franciscos 9.1 percent annual gain. Recently, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported that homeowners who moved out of default outnumbered those who became newly delinquent in February, which was the first such occurrence since March 2006.

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