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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Applications Decrease as Rates Jump

Posted by Howard Bell on February 10, 2011 at 10:10am
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 02/09/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.9 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.7 percent from the previous week

Purchase Index: decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 16.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 66.6 percent of total applications from 69.3 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share observed in the survey since the beginning of May 2010.

Arm Share: increased to 5.9 percent from 5.5 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates increased last week as many incoming economic indicators continue to show stronger growth than had been anticipated. Refinance volume continues to be low, as fewer homeowners with equity have any incentive to refinance, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. We are at the beginning of the spring buying season, but purchase volume remains weak on a seasonally adjusted basis

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Freddie Mac Update: 30-Year Mortgages Rise to Highest Level Since April 2010

Posted by Howard Bell on February 10, 2011 at 10:10am

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 10, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.19 percent

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.

For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while Januarys unemployment ate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005. As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Bond Yields Rise and So Do Mortgage Rates

Posted by Howard Bell on January 27, 2011 at 2:08pm


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.80 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 27, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.74 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.09 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.39 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: A veraged 3.70 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.25 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: A veraged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.29 percent. 

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates followed bond yields a little higher this week amid positive data reports from  The Conference Board that suggest the economy is strengthening. The index of leading indicators rose 1.0 percent in December, nearly twice that of the market consensus forecast and represented the sixth consecutive monthly increase, according to the Board. They also reported a stronger gain in consumer confidence for January, rising to an eight-month high. In addition, the share of households who said jobs were plentiful rose to the highest level since May 2009.

Consumer demand in the housing market is also showing some positive gains. Sales of  existing homes  rose in December to the strongest pace since May and sales of  new homes jumped to the highest since April. At their current sales rate, the expected time on the market fell from 9.5 to 8.l months for existing houses and fell from 8.4 to 6.9 months for new home

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Applications Decrease

Posted by Howard Bell on January 27, 2011 at 2:08pm
                                             Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/5/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) d ecreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent

Purchase Index: decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

Arm Share: No info available this week

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

 

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase

Posted by Howard Bell on January 23, 2011 at 7:04pm

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Down for Second Week

Posted by Howard Bell on January 23, 2011 at 7:04pm

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 13, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.77 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.45 percent

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.32 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.39 percent

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment report , which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery. Fixed mortgage rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low.

In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment. In addition, the outlooks for residential real estate were mixed, with contacts in most Districts described as expecting continued weak conditions

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase

Posted by Howard Bell on January 15, 2011 at 5:48pm

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Long and Short- Term Mortgages Drop This Week

Posted by Howard Bell on January 15, 2011 at 5:48pm
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.77 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 6, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.86 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.09 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.50 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.77 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

On. Averaged 3.24 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.31 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates began the new year a little lower this week and remained below those at the start of 2010, which should help aid the recovery in the housing market. Low mortgage rates are an important factor in housing affordability , which in November was the highest since records began in 1971, according to the National Association of Realtors Not surprisingly, the Realtors also reported that pending existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November to the strongest pace since April when the homebuyer tax credit expired. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases at the end of 2010 were roughly running at the same rate as the beginning of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Stable

Posted by Howard Bell on January 5, 2011 at 4:11pm


30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.86 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending December 30, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.20 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.54 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Interest rates on fixed mortgages and the 5 year Hybrid ARM rose slightly over the holiday week, but were still below the years highs set in the first half of 2010. For the year as a whole, 30 year fixed mortgage rates averaged just below 4.7 percent, which represented the lowest annual average since 1955 when secondary market yields on FHA mortgages were above 4.6 percent and the average price of a home was $22,000. Recent news on housing markets has been mixed. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index fell 0.99 percent in October, in line with other reports showing a softening in house prices since mid year. Home sales continue to recover in the months following the expiration of the Home buyer Tax Credit, however, with sales of new and existing homes up 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, in November

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update:Mortgage Applications Increase the Week After Christmas

Posted by Howard Bell on January 5, 2011 at 4:10pm
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/5/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) d ecreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent

Purchase Index: decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

Arm Share: No info available this week

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Applications Decrease

Posted by Howard Bell on December 11, 2010 at 4:00pm

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 12/8/2010

Market Composite Index:(loan application volume) decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22.8 percent compared with the previous week, which included the Thanksgiving Holiday

Refinance Index: decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week. This is the fourth weekly decrease for the Refinance Index which reached its lowest level since June 2010

Purchase Index: increased 1.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the third weekly increase for the Purchase Index which reached its highest level since early May 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 21.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 75.2 percent of total applications from 74.9 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year. We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Bond Yields Rise and So Do Mortgage Rates

Posted by Howard Bell on December 11, 2010 at 4:00pm

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.61 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 9, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.46 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.81 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.96 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.32 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.60 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.49 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.26 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.27 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.24 percent.

Freddie Sayz Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac. After Europe made strides in its debt situation, investors left the security of U.S. Treasury debt causing bond yields to rise and mortgage rates along with them. Interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages are now almost a half percentage point higher than the record low set in mid November, which for a $200,000 conventional loan amounts to $50 more in monthly payments. Housing demand appears to be picking up recently. Existing pending sales jumped 10.4 percent in October to the strongest pace since April, according to the National Association of Realtors. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases rose for the three consecutive weeks ending on December 3rd, representing a 17.7 percent increase and the strongest pace since the week of May 7th, based on figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association Maximizing The Rent

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase

Posted by Howard Bell on November 26, 2010 at 11:24am

Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 11/24/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index observed since the end of June.

Purchase Index: increased 14.4 percent from one week earlier, which included Veterans Day. No adjustment was made for the holiday. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago
decreased to 78.6 percent of total applications from 80.3 percent the previous week.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 80.3 percent of total applications from 81.7 percent the previous week.

Arm Share: share of activity remained constant at 5.3 percent of total applications.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Stable

Posted by Howard Bell on November 26, 2010 at 11:24am
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.40 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 24, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.77 percent with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.29 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.45 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.18 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.35 percent

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
During a holiday shortened week, average mortgage rates were largely unchanged from the prior week. Growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised up from the initial estimate to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, as stronger consumer spending and exports supported the revision.

Homeowner balance sheets are also improving. Mortgage delinquency rates continued to move down in the third quarter, with the overall delinquency rate falling to 9.13 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. For the first time during the housing downturn, the overall delinquency rate is lower than it was a year earlier.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Update: 30-Year Mortgage Rate Ties Low While 15 Year Sets New Record

Posted by Howard Bell on October 7, 2010 at 11:59am
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.32 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending September 30, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.37 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.94 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged a record low of 3.75 percent with an average 0.7 point , down from last week when it averaged 3.82 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.36 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.52 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point , down from last week when it averaged 3.54 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.42 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.48 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.46 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.49 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Confidence in the state of the economy fell among consumers and businesses, which led to a decline in long term bond yields and brought many mortgage rates to record lows this week. The September Consumer Confidence Index by the Conference Board fell to the lowest level since February of this year, while the Business Roundtable CEO Business Outlook for the third quarter was the weakest in the past four quarters. Consequently, rates for the 15 year fixed mortgage and the 5 year hybrid ARM reached new all-time lows and rates for 30-year fixed mortgages tied its record set just four weeks ago.

Homeowners have regained $1.0 trillion in home equity as of the second quarter of 2010 after losing more than $7.5 trillion over the three year period ending in the first quarter of 2009, the Federal Reserve Board reported. This, in part, strengthened household balance sheets and reduced serious mortgage delinquencies. For instance, first mortgages 90 days delinquent or worse fell to 3.16% in August from 4.76% a year prior and was the lowest rate since June 2008, according to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices .

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Sharp Jump in Purchases Led by Applications for FHA Loans

Posted by Howard Bell on October 7, 2010 at 11:59am
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 09/22/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: decreased 2.5 percent from the previous week. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 34.7 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Purchase Index: decreased to 78.9 percent of total applications from 80.7 percent the previous week.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 78.9 percent of total applications from 80.7 percent the previous week.
increased to 6.1 percent from 6.0 percent of total applications from the previous week.

Arm Share: decreased to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

We predict that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase activity continues to be weak, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, while refinance activity is being propped up by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, although there is less refinancing going on now than in previous periods of comparably low mortgage rates. Purchase originations will fall to $539 billion from $740 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $910 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009. This months originations estimates for 2010 forward were revised downwards to reflect the weaker July data for home sales and housing starts.

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FHA Offers Short Refi Program For Underwater Homeowners

Posted by Howard Bell on September 8, 2010 at 12:40pm
FHA Offers Short Refi Program For Underwater Homeowners In an effort to help responsible homeowners who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their property HUD adjusted its refinance program. The changes will enable lenders to provide additional refinancing options to underwater homeowners. see chart

Starting September 7, 2010, FHA will offer some underwater non FHA borrowers the opportunity to qualify for a new FHA insured mortgage. Designed to meet its goal of stabilizing housing markets, by helping 3 to 4 million homeowners through 2012.

FHA provided some guidance

Participation in FHA's refinance program is voluntary and requires the consent of all lien holders. To be eligible for a new loan:

1. The homeowner must owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth and be current on their existing mortgage.
2. The homeowner must qualify for the new loan under standard FHA underwriting requirements and have a credit score equal to or greater than 500.
3 The property must be the homeowner's primary residence.
4. And the borrower's existing first lien holder must agree to write off at least 10% of their unpaid principal balance, bringing that borrower's combined loan-to-value ratio to no greater than 115%.
5.The existing loan to be refinanced must not be an FHA-insured loan, and the refinanced FHA-insured first mortgage must have a loan-to-value ratio of no more than 97.75 percent.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Update: Long-Term Mortgage Rates Fall for the Ninth Week Out of Ten

Posted by Howard Bell on August 28, 2010 at 10:06am

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.36 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending August 26, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.42 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged a record low of 3.86 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.90 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.58 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.56 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, unchanged from last week when it also averaged 3.56 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.67 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.52 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down slightly from last week when it also averaged 3.53 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.69 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Existing home sales plunged 27 percent in July, while new homes fell 12% to a new all-time record low, which led to some market concerns that the housing market may slow the economic recovery. As a result, long-term bond yields fell to the lowest levels since January 2009, allowing fixed mortgage rates to ease to new record lows this week.

Much of the slowdown in sales, however, was expected due to the recently expired homebuyer tax programs, which pulled through future home purchases into the first half of the year. For instance, average existing home sales over the first seven months of 2010 were nearly 8 percent higher than over the same period a year ago.
Moreover, house prices still appear to be stabilizing. Nationally, house prices rose 0.9 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis during the second quarter of this year this year after 11 consecutive quarterly declines,

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Mortgage Refinance Applications Continue to Increase

Posted by Howard Bell on August 28, 2010 at 10:05am
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 08/25/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4.5 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: increased 5.7 percent from the previous week and is at its highest level since May 1, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.6 percent from one week earlier.

Purchase Index: decreased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week and was 38.8 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 82.4 percent of total applications from 81.4 percent the previous week, which is the highest share observed since January 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.8 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Existing home sales in June declined 5.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.37 million units from 5.66 million in May, and are 9.8 percent higher than in June of last year. Single family home sales fell 5.6 percent to 4.70 million units in June from 4.98 million units in May, and are 8.5 percent above the pace in June 2009. For both total existing home sales and single family home sales, the monthly decrease was the largest since January this year. We predict that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.5 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase activity continues to be weak, while refinance activity is being propped up by mortgage rates that are close to historical lows, although there is much less refinancing going on now than in previous periods of comparably low mortgage rates. Purchase originations will fall to $576 billion from $750 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $900 billion in 2010 from $1.2 trillion in 2009.

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Mortgage Bankers Weekly Update: Essentially Unchanged Despite Lowest Rates

Posted by Howard Bell on August 14, 2010 at 10:15am
Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 08/11/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 0.6 percent on a seaso
nally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 0.4 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: increased 0.6 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier.

Purchase Index: decreased 0.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 34.1 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.1 percent of total applications from 78.0 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity increased to 5.9 percent from 5.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

Arm Share: increased to 5.9 percent from 5.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Federal Reserve policymakers have been increasingly clear that they will keep their target rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended perio d. They have also made no moves to this point in terms of asset sales from their trillion dollar portfolio of mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs large buyouts of delinquent loans from MBS have substantially been completed by this point, so there are no longer large-scale purchases of MBS by unconventional buyers artificially constraining mortgage rates. However, continued financial turmoil appears to have led many investors, including international buyers, to favor MBS, and new issuance remains quite low.

We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.48 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will decrease 7 percent to $686 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the boost from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall by about 42 percent to $797 billion in 2010. We continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given that mortgage rates have continued to remain close to historical lows.

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