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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 4/14/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 9.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This is the third lowest Market Index recorded in the survey since the end of June 2009.
Refinance Index: decreased 9.0 percent from the previous week, marking the index’s fifth consecutive decline
Purchase Index: decreased 10.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 17.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The decline in purchase applications was driven by government purchase applications, which decreased 19.1 percent from last week, compared to a decrease of 2.0 percent in conventional purchase applications.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 58.9 percent of total applications from 58.7 percent the previous week.
increased to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 6.2 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Economic growth and a recovering job market are good news for housing, but we certainly have not seen any significant improvement in housing activity to date. Existing home sales declined in February, and new home sales actually reached a new record low that month. Additionally, the number of existing homes on the market increased, as sellers began to list their properties in anticipation of the spring. Rising inventories on top of weak demand continues to put pressure on prices, with most measures showing either declines or weak gains over the winter.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall by about 38 percent to $1.3 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall by around 2 percent to $726 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 126 percent to $604 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year.
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Rates at Second Highest Level This Year
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.08 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 1, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.34 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.52 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.10 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.14 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.92 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.05 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.75 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Interest rates for fixed mortgages rose this week following a run up in long-term bond yields, while ARM rates eased slightly, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Rates on 30-year fixed loans were the highest since the starting week of this year. Home-price declines continue to moderate with more metropolitan areas showing stabilizing or rising values.
Compared with one year ago, house prices were down 0.7 percent in January 2010 in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, which was the smallest 12-month decrease since January 2007. Nine of the cities experienced positive growth, led by San Franciscos 9.1 percent annual gain. Recently, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported that homeowners who moved out of default outnumbered those who became newly delinquent in February, which was the first such occurrence since March 2006.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/31/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: decreased 1.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the highest Purchase Index since the week ending October 30, 2009.
Purchase Index: increased 6.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 63.2 percent of total applications from 65.0 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share recorded in the survey since the week ending October 23, 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.2 percent from 4.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Purchase applications have increased over the past month, and are now at their highest level since last October when many homebuyers were rushing to get loans closed before the expected expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. We may be seeing a similar pattern now, as the extended version of the tax credit ends next month.
The housing industry faces another challenge during the spring building season stemming from the end on March 31 of the Federal Reserve’s program of buying mortgage-backed securities. The impact on mortgage interest rates that follows is not expected to be dramatic, but it will certainly act as a damper on home buying. The inventory of unsold homes has declined but remains well above normal levels, and will likely remain relatively high given pending foreclosures
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 2/24/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 8.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: decreased 8.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, putting the index at its lowest level since May 1997.
Purchase Index: decreased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 68.1 percent of total applications from 69.3 percent the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 4.7 percent from 4.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The economy is growing again. 4Q growth of 2009 exceeded expectations due to strong growth in business inventories. However inventory replacement is a short lived spurt, unless consumers buy. Weakness in the job market and a fragile recovery are likely to keep consumers from spending on big ticket items like houses and cars.
Existing home sales fell back in December and new home builders are not upbeat. The Fed remains unlikely to raise rates, however, they are going to end their MBS purchase program. This will certainly cause a rise in interest rates as the marketplace demands higher rates to compensate for risk.
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