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After the election I started watching Bloomberg TV instead of the news/opinion channels I had been watching.  I guess I just got tired of all the yelling, in addition to the fact that I felt the need to try and get some clarity on what might happen to the economy, and more specifically the Silicon Valley housing market.

 

Besides the much needed civility I found on Bloomberg, I quickly came away with the understanding that no matter who the different reporters and commentators said they thought would be winners and losers in a new political environment, there was one thing everyone agreed on. Interest rates are going up. PERIOD, end of story. Janet Yellen was going to raise interest rates anyway, due to the favorable economic environment. But added to what would have happened, regardless of the election outcome, everyone agrees that we appear to be headed for an inflationary period.

 

I am old enough to have purchased my first home when interest rates were 19% and the most valuable homes were those that had assumable mortgages as 13% or less. Hopefully we are not going back to those days.

 

But we are going from interest rates in low 3% to now over 4% and presumably still rising. So what does this mean to the Silicon Valley housing market?

 

Common wisdom is that as interest rates go up housing prices go down since the ability for a borrower to pay also goes down. We have seen this in the past, but the decrease in price is not always proportional to the increase in rate.

 

Take this example.

 

A Million dollar loan: 30 year fixed

 

At 4.150%:  $4861 a month

 

At 5%:  $5368

 

At 6%:  $5996

 

At 7%:  $6653

 

The difference for each jump of 1% in interest translates into about a 10% increase in monthly payment.

 

For a conforming loan of $400,000 30 year fixed

 

At 4%:  1910

At 5%:  2147

 

At 6%:  2398

 

At 7%:  2661

 

Again, the difference for each 1% in increased interest rates equates to about a 10% increase in monthly payment.

 

So, in order to make waiting a money saver, If interest rates go up 1% pt. housing prices must go down over 10%. At a 2% pt hike housing prices must go down over 20%, and at a 3 pt climb they must go down over 30%.

 

Do we expect this to happen in the Silicon Valley housing market in the near future?

 

No one can say for sure, but let’s look back at housing rate drops during the big crash of 2008-2010/2011 in some different neighborhoods.

 

These are average prices for all residential real estate. Some segments fell more than others, but on average I looked at what the mean sale was for single family homes, town homes and condos in four locations: Palo Alto, East Palo Alto, 94087 (Sunnyvale west of El Camino), and Willow Glen.

 

Palo Alto

 

High before crash:  $1.3 million

 

Low after crash       $1.2 million

 

 

East Palo Alto

 

High before crash:   $628,000

 

Low after crash:       $295,000

 

 

94087

 

High before crash:    $779,000

 

Low after crash:        $717,000

 

 

Willow Glen

 

High Before crash:     $793,000

 

Low after crash:         $637,000

 

 

 

What so these numbers tell me about the Silicon Valley housing market, and by extension you?

 

If you are planning on buying in one of the areas where prices held up fairly well during the crash, then waiting for prices to drop as interest rates rise may not be to your advantage.

 

If you are planning on buying in a location that did not hold up well during the crash then an increase in interest rates may get you some savings in the long run or maybe bigger, better property.

 

My only concern would be that places like East Palo Alto that suffered so badly during the crash may not drop as much with higher interest rates since the location is so convenient to Facebook and Google. That may put enough pressure on these east of 101 neighborhoods to keep the prices supported more than they were in the crash.

 

I believe the same may be true in San Jose as companies like Google and Apple move south where there is more available space. In neighborhoods like Alum Rock or South San Jose where there is a lot of investor activity it may be better to wait until prices fall.

 

If you have any questions about buying or selling a home in the Silicon Valley please feel free to contact me.

 

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Wisconsin Quitclaim Deeds

Wisconsin Quitclaim DeedA quitclaim deed allows property owners to transfer whatever interest they may have in a specific piece of real estate. The Wisconsin statutes do not contain a specific form for deeds, but they do define what the different conveyances mean, and the minimum information necessary in each (Wisc. Stat. 706.02, 706.10(4)). To be eligible for recording, a deed also must meet all the local rules for content and format as well as the statutory requirements set forth in Wisc. Stat. 706.05.

As opposed to a warranty deed, a quitclaim deed offers no guarantees that the owner has good title or even ownership at all; it simply conveys whatever interest exists at the time of the deed’s signing. Once buyers accept it, they are left with little to no recourse against the former owner. This lack of protection makes a quitclaim deed unsuitable for purchasing real estate from an unknown party.

Yet, a quitclaim deed is fully sufficient to convey property in other circumstances. Consider the following scenarios:

  • Familial transfers: Quitclaim deeds are often used to transfer property within families, for example, between parents and children, siblings and other closely related family members.
  • Adding or removing a spouse: Whether resulting from marriage or divorce, a real estate owner can use a quitclaim deed to add a spouse to the title or to remove him or her.
  • Transferring real estate to an LLC or corporation: Since corporate transfers often happen between closely related entities, they are usually done with this deed.
  • Transferring real estate to a trust: Estate planning for subsequent generations often involves an initial transfer from a family member into a trust.
  • Clearing the title for insurance purposes: In the process of researching the chain of title, title companies may find a "cloud" on it. Generally this means that someone who is not identified in the ownership history may have an interest in the property. This can be amended if the person in question executes a quitclaim deed.
  • Removal of a potential interest holder: Prior to funding a loan, lenders may require someone who is not going to be on the loan, such as a spouse, to record a quitclaim deed, thus formally foregoing any future interest in the property.

Many of the above transfers are exempt from Wisconsin’s real estate transfer tax pursuant to Wisc. Stat. 77.25 as long as only nominal or no consideration is paid in exchange. Even if the transfer or removal of an interest falls under one of these exemptions, the transfer tax return form should be submitted in order to identify and document the exemption.

Further information about quitclaim and other real estate deeds is available at Deeds.com.

This article information was provided by Deeds.com. This is not legal advice and you are encouraged to consult legal counsel with any questions.
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.95 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending February 24, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 5.0 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.05 percent. .

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.27 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.8 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.87 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.16 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.40 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.39 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.15 percent.

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Fixed mortgage rates eased again this holiday week amid mixed inflation data reports. Although the core consumer price index for January rose slightly above the market consensus, house prices fell 4.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller National Index In addition, the level of the index was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2002

Low mortgage rates and home prices are sustaining affordability in the housing market. Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in January and were at the strongest pace in eight months, the National Association of Realtors reported; only the Northeast region experienced a slowdown in sales

Read more…

 

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.0 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 17, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 5.05 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.93 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.27 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.29 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.33 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.87 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.92 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.12 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.39 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.35 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.23 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Fixed mortgage rates eased slightly this week and continue to be very affordable. Prior to 2009, interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages had never been at 5 percent since our survey began in April 1971. In both 1981 and 1982, the rates were over three times as high as they are today.

The housing market is struggling to regain traction despite still historically low rates. New construction on one-family homes dipped slightly in January to an annualized pace of 413,000 units, which was the fewest number since May 2009. In addition, homebuilder confidence didnt improve for the third consecutive month in February.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 2/16/2010


Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 9.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7.9 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 11.4 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index recorded in the survey since the week ending July 3, 2009.

Purchase Index: decreased 5.9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 18.2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 64.0 percent of total applications from 66.6 percent the previous week. This is the fourth straight week the share has declined.

Arm Share: increased to 6.0 percent from 5.9 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates remained above 5% last week, up almost a full percentage point from their October lows, and refinance volume continued to drop, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. Applications for home purchases also declined on a seasonally adjusted basis. Buyers have not returned to the market as rising rates have reduced
affordability, to some extent .

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 02/09/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.9 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.7 percent from the previous week

Purchase Index: decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 16.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 66.6 percent of total applications from 69.3 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share observed in the survey since the beginning of May 2010.

Arm Share: increased to 5.9 percent from 5.5 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

Mortgage rates increased last week as many incoming economic indicators continue to show stronger growth than had been anticipated. Refinance volume continues to be low, as fewer homeowners with equity have any incentive to refinance, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. We are at the beginning of the spring buying season, but purchase volume remains weak on a seasonally adjusted basis

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.05 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 10, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.97 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.29 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.08 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.34 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.19 percent

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.35 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac

Long-term bond yields jumped on positive economic data reports, which placed upward pressure on mortgage rates this week.

For all of 2010, nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent, the most since 2002, while Januarys unemployment ate unexpectedly fell from 9.4 percent to 9.0 percent. Moreover, the service industry expanded in January at the fastest pace since August 2005. As a result, interest rates on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to the highest level since the last week in April 2010

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.80 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 27, 2011, up from last week when it averaged 4.74 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.98 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: A veraged 4.09 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.05 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.39 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: A veraged 3.70 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.69 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.25 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: A veraged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.29 percent. 

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates followed bond yields a little higher this week amid positive data reports from  The Conference Board that suggest the economy is strengthening. The index of leading indicators rose 1.0 percent in December, nearly twice that of the market consensus forecast and represented the sixth consecutive monthly increase, according to the Board. They also reported a stronger gain in consumer confidence for January, rising to an eight-month high. In addition, the share of households who said jobs were plentiful rose to the highest level since May 2009.

Consumer demand in the housing market is also showing some positive gains. Sales of  existing homes  rose in December to the strongest pace since May and sales of  new homes jumped to the highest since April. At their current sales rate, the expected time on the market fell from 9.5 to 8.l months for existing houses and fell from 8.4 to 6.9 months for new home

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                                             Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/5/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) d ecreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent

Purchase Index: decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

Arm Share: No info available this week

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

 

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.71 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 13, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.77 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.08 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.13 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.45 percent

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.72 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.32 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.23 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.24 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.39 percent

Freddie Sayz
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Bond yields drifted lower following the release of the December employment report , which was weaker than the market consensus forecast and implied that the labor market is still in a sluggish recovery. Fixed mortgage rates followed bond yields lower for a second consecutive week, bringing them to a four-week low.

In its January 12th regional economic review, the Federal Reserve noted that activity in residential real estate and new home construction remained slow across all Districts over the last two months of 2010 due to concerns about the pace of economic recovery, especially in employment. In addition, the outlooks for residential real estate were mixed, with contacts in most Districts described as expecting continued weak conditions

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/12/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 47.5 percent compared with the previous week

Refinance Index: increased 4.9 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.7 percent from one week earlier

Purchase Index: increased 41.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 10.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 5.3 percent. The four week moving average is down 1.0 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is down 7.5 percent for the Refinance Index.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 71.0 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.0 percent of total applications in the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Read more…
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.77 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending January 6, 2011, down from last week when it averaged 4.86 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.09 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.8 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.50 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.77 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

On. Averaged 3.24 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.31 percent.

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates began the new year a little lower this week and remained below those at the start of 2010, which should help aid the recovery in the housing market. Low mortgage rates are an important factor in housing affordability , which in November was the highest since records began in 1971, according to the National Association of Realtors Not surprisingly, the Realtors also reported that pending existing home sales rose for the second consecutive month in November to the strongest pace since April when the homebuyer tax credit expired. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases at the end of 2010 were roughly running at the same rate as the beginning of the year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.86 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending December 30, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.81 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.20 percent with an average 0.8 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.15 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.54 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.75 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.44 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.26 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.33 percent

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.

Interest rates on fixed mortgages and the 5 year Hybrid ARM rose slightly over the holiday week, but were still below the years highs set in the first half of 2010. For the year as a whole, 30 year fixed mortgage rates averaged just below 4.7 percent, which represented the lowest annual average since 1955 when secondary market yields on FHA mortgages were above 4.6 percent and the average price of a home was $22,000. Recent news on housing markets has been mixed. The S&P/Case-Shiller house price index fell 0.99 percent in October, in line with other reports showing a softening in house prices since mid year. Home sales continue to recover in the months following the expiration of the Home buyer Tax Credit, however, with sales of new and existing homes up 5.5 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively, in November

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 01/5/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) d ecreased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. For the week ending December 31, 2010, this index increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Refinance Index: decreased 7.2 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. The following week, the Refinance Index increased 3.9 percent and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.8 percent

Purchase Index: decreased 18.1 percent the week before Christmas and decreased 12.2 percent the week following. This measure was 12.1 percent higher and 6.1 percent lower, respectively, than the same period a year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: for the week ending December 31, 2010 was 71.0 percent, an increase from 70.3 percent for the week ending December 24, 2010.

Arm Share: No info available this week

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The financial markets response to the announcement of QE2 on November 3 has likely been a disappointment to the Fed. Equity prices have risen, but long-term rates have backed up considerably, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury pushing up past 3%. And turmoil in Europe has led to an increase in the value of the dollar in exchange markets, not the decline that had been expected in response to QE2. Had the Feds proposal for renewed large-scale asset purchases been well received, Fed officials might now be considering increasing the announced rate of purchases to $100 billion per month or more. But dong so under present circumstances would likely evoke a political firestorm.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $967 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. This is a decline from $1.5 trillion in 2010 and a little under $2.0 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations should increase to $615 billion in 2011 up from $473 billion in 2010. Refinance originations, primarily impacted by the level of mortgage rates, are expected to drop sharply in 2011 to $352 billion and fall further in 2012 to $237 billion. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 69 percent in 2010 to 36 percent in 2011, and then 24 percent in 2012 as rates climb above the 6 percent mark.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 12/8/2010

Market Composite Index:(loan application volume) decreased 0.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 22.8 percent compared with the previous week, which included the Thanksgiving Holiday

Refinance Index: decreased 1.4 percent from the previous week. This is the fourth weekly decrease for the Refinance Index which reached its lowest level since June 2010

Purchase Index: increased 1.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the third weekly increase for the Purchase Index which reached its highest level since early May 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 21.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 75.2 percent of total applications from 74.9 percent the previous week

Arm Share: decreased to 5.6 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org) The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year. We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.

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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.61 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending December 9, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.46 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.81 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.96 percent with an average 0.7 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.81 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.32 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.60 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.49 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.26 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.27 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.25 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.24 percent.

Freddie Sayz Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac. After Europe made strides in its debt situation, investors left the security of U.S. Treasury debt causing bond yields to rise and mortgage rates along with them. Interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages are now almost a half percentage point higher than the record low set in mid November, which for a $200,000 conventional loan amounts to $50 more in monthly payments. Housing demand appears to be picking up recently. Existing pending sales jumped 10.4 percent in October to the strongest pace since April, according to the National Association of Realtors. More recently, mortgage applications for home purchases rose for the three consecutive weeks ending on December 3rd, representing a 17.7 percent increase and the strongest pace since the week of May 7th, based on figures released by the Mortgage Bankers Association Maximizing The Rent

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Regardless if you are for or against making changes to the Mortgage Interest Tax Deduction, lets first talk about what this tax deduction really is.

The mortgage interest deduction is a social entitlement. Like all other social entitlements, it does the following.

1. Allows the government to directly influence free markets.

2. Has a continual growth pattern, never retracts.

3. Replaces the power of the individual citizen with the power of special interest.

4. Progresses a Socialist / Progressive agenda

Point # 1:

The Mortgage Interest Deduction is a tax deduction that came into existence back in 1986 with the Tax Reform Act of 1986. The decision to create the tax deduction was done so under the belief it would encourage homeownership. As many of us learned with the recent real estate bubble bursting, it’s my belief and opinion that anytime our Government decides to artificially influence free markets in the name of “progress”, it may not actually be a good idea. Yes, I do believe Government has a role but, I do not believe it should be in the business of creating “incentives”. As we have learned, Government incentives can artificially inflate segments of our economy that can ultimately burst.

Secondly, I don’t believe America was built on an ideology of Government handouts or incentives, at least not the America I grew up in. We are a self reliant people, we are a charitable people, we are not socialist or progressives who believe in large or more Government.

Point # 2:

As we are learning from Europe, social entitlements do not retract or go away. They grow and grow and grow till, they end up eating all the money and collapse under their own financial weight. Sadly, I wish I could say America hasn’t made any of these types of entitlement mistakes however, we have with healthcare and social security.

Social security is bankrupt and we are currently paying our elderly, retired and disabled with debt. Social security is crippling this country and we are looking at posterity measures not to save social security but to keep our country from financial ruin.

The recent healthcare passage is another entitlement that is raping our children’s future. I don’t know about your household expenses but, we are going to see a 2,500.00 rise in 2011 in our health care insurance and that was directly contributed to “obamacare” in a nice little letter from our insurance provider. Even the CBO, Congressional Budget Office is warning now that cost predictions were off and healthcare has the potential to bankrupt this country.

So, to my point, how many of you can even stomach the idea of ending social security? I venture to say, none of you.

Point # 3:

Social entitlements are just that “social”. In other words, it’s a form of collectivism that removes the voice of the individual for the voice of the collective good. The problem with this is, the “collective good” is nothing more than a pipe dream. You see, we are all individuals, we are all different, we all have our own likes and dislikes and therefore, we can never have a 100% collective good. So, instead of social entitlements offering a “good” to everyone, they just end up offering a “good” to those who would be directly impacted.

For example, the Mortgage Interest Deduction doesn’t do any good for people who aren’t buying or own a home so, it doesn’t help everyone. Social security only helps the elderly, retired, disabled but, if you are a 25 years old, healthy working person, you pay into a bankrupt system that chances are, you will never use because, by the time you qualify, it will be collapsed.

Social entitlement create population segments that are segregated based on the qualification for the benefit. It’s a form of class warfare.

Point # 4:

Social entitlement moves our country away from the Republic we were created to be and moves us towards a more socialist, progressive Government where our constitution is made irrelevant and our elected officials, loose their power and the individual citizen become non-existent. This isn’t the American way.

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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 11/24/2010

Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 2.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.1 percent compared with the previous week.

Refinance Index: decreased 1.0 percent from the previous week and is the lowest Refinance Index observed since the end of June.

Purchase Index: increased 14.4 percent from one week earlier, which included Veterans Day. No adjustment was made for the holiday. On a seasonally adjusted basis, this is the highest Purchase Index recorded since the week ending May 7, 2010. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 9.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago
decreased to 78.6 percent of total applications from 80.3 percent the previous week.

Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 80.3 percent of total applications from 81.7 percent the previous week.

Arm Share: share of activity remained constant at 5.3 percent of total applications.

MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 9.13 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the third quarter of 2010, a decrease of 72 basis points from the second quarter of 2010, and a decrease of 51 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 1.34 percent, up 23 basis points from last quarter and down eight basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 4.39 percent, down 18 basis points from the second quarter of 2010 and down eight basis points from one year ago. The seriously delinquent rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 8.70 percent, a decrease of 41 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 15 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

We expect that mortgage originations will decrease to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from a downwardly revised $2.0 trillion in 2009, previously estimated at $2.1 trillion. Total originations will then fall to $996 billion in 2011, the lowest level of originations since 1997. Purchase activity in 2010 will see a significant drop from 2009, although it was given a brief boost in the spring by the tax credit program, but start to recover in 2011. Refinance activity is currently being buoyed by mortgage rates that remain close to historical lows, but will fall in 2011 and 2012 as rates start to increase. Purchase originations will fall to $480 billion from $665 billion in 2009 and refinance originations will decrease to about $921 billion in 2010 from $1.3 trillion in 2009. We expect that the refinance share of originations should fall from 66 percent in 2010 to 37 percent in 2011, and then 26 percent in 2012.

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Freddie Mac Weekly Update: Mortgage Rates Stable

30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.40 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 24, 2010, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 3.77 percent with an average 0.7 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 3.76 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.29 percent.

Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.45 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 3.40 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.18 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.26 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.35 percent

Freddie Sayz

Attributed to Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac.
During a holiday shortened week, average mortgage rates were largely unchanged from the prior week. Growth in gross domestic product in the third quarter was revised up from the initial estimate to an annualized rate of 2.5 percent, as stronger consumer spending and exports supported the revision.

Homeowner balance sheets are also improving. Mortgage delinquency rates continued to move down in the third quarter, with the overall delinquency rate falling to 9.13 percent, the lowest since the first quarter of 2009. For the first time during the housing downturn, the overall delinquency rate is lower than it was a year earlier.

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