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After the election I started watching Bloomberg TV instead of the news/opinion channels I had been watching.  I guess I just got tired of all the yelling, in addition to the fact that I felt the need to try and get some clarity on what might happen to the economy, and more specifically the Silicon Valley housing market.

 

Besides the much needed civility I found on Bloomberg, I quickly came away with the understanding that no matter who the different reporters and commentators said they thought would be winners and losers in a new political environment, there was one thing everyone agreed on. Interest rates are going up. PERIOD, end of story. Janet Yellen was going to raise interest rates anyway, due to the favorable economic environment. But added to what would have happened, regardless of the election outcome, everyone agrees that we appear to be headed for an inflationary period.

 

I am old enough to have purchased my first home when interest rates were 19% and the most valuable homes were those that had assumable mortgages as 13% or less. Hopefully we are not going back to those days.

 

But we are going from interest rates in low 3% to now over 4% and presumably still rising. So what does this mean to the Silicon Valley housing market?

 

Common wisdom is that as interest rates go up housing prices go down since the ability for a borrower to pay also goes down. We have seen this in the past, but the decrease in price is not always proportional to the increase in rate.

 

Take this example.

 

A Million dollar loan: 30 year fixed

 

At 4.150%:  $4861 a month

 

At 5%:  $5368

 

At 6%:  $5996

 

At 7%:  $6653

 

The difference for each jump of 1% in interest translates into about a 10% increase in monthly payment.

 

For a conforming loan of $400,000 30 year fixed

 

At 4%:  1910

At 5%:  2147

 

At 6%:  2398

 

At 7%:  2661

 

Again, the difference for each 1% in increased interest rates equates to about a 10% increase in monthly payment.

 

So, in order to make waiting a money saver, If interest rates go up 1% pt. housing prices must go down over 10%. At a 2% pt hike housing prices must go down over 20%, and at a 3 pt climb they must go down over 30%.

 

Do we expect this to happen in the Silicon Valley housing market in the near future?

 

No one can say for sure, but let’s look back at housing rate drops during the big crash of 2008-2010/2011 in some different neighborhoods.

 

These are average prices for all residential real estate. Some segments fell more than others, but on average I looked at what the mean sale was for single family homes, town homes and condos in four locations: Palo Alto, East Palo Alto, 94087 (Sunnyvale west of El Camino), and Willow Glen.

 

Palo Alto

 

High before crash:  $1.3 million

 

Low after crash       $1.2 million

 

 

East Palo Alto

 

High before crash:   $628,000

 

Low after crash:       $295,000

 

 

94087

 

High before crash:    $779,000

 

Low after crash:        $717,000

 

 

Willow Glen

 

High Before crash:     $793,000

 

Low after crash:         $637,000

 

 

 

What so these numbers tell me about the Silicon Valley housing market, and by extension you?

 

If you are planning on buying in one of the areas where prices held up fairly well during the crash, then waiting for prices to drop as interest rates rise may not be to your advantage.

 

If you are planning on buying in a location that did not hold up well during the crash then an increase in interest rates may get you some savings in the long run or maybe bigger, better property.

 

My only concern would be that places like East Palo Alto that suffered so badly during the crash may not drop as much with higher interest rates since the location is so convenient to Facebook and Google. That may put enough pressure on these east of 101 neighborhoods to keep the prices supported more than they were in the crash.

 

I believe the same may be true in San Jose as companies like Google and Apple move south where there is more available space. In neighborhoods like Alum Rock or South San Jose where there is a lot of investor activity it may be better to wait until prices fall.

 

If you have any questions about buying or selling a home in the Silicon Valley please feel free to contact me.

 

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I was reading about short sales, as I do every Sunday morning on a great site for short sale information Short Sale Superstars. There was a discussion about a Bank of America Short Sale that had been approved, and then denied after the approval, a few days before closing. The reason:

The seller was a real estate broker and the listing agent works for the seller. The buyer used the listing agent to represent her.

Surprise Surprise, B of A said this is not an Arm's Length Transaction and rescinded the approval.

Blossom Valley Short Sale

There are multiple things wrong with transaction so let me see if I can organize the problems coherently.

1. All short sales must be an Arm's Length Transaction and an affidavit needs to be signed by all parties saying they are not related to each other in any way. The listing agent works for the seller so that is not arms length.

2. The seller may be offered a closing incentive by the bank, but is not allowed to receive any money from the buyer. Since the buyer is using the the listing agent who works for the seller and would have received commission for the sale, a portion of which would go to the broker, then the seller is getting money from the buyer.

3. Again, since the listing agent works for the seller and would get commission from the sale, a portion of which would go to the broker, the seller would be receiving money from the sale outside of the closing incentive.

4. The buyer has agreed to a dual agency and is entitled to the information that the listing agent works for the seller and that this can cause potential problems with The Arm's Length Transaction.

I do not know if the seller was trying to pull something over on the bank, or if he was just not familiar with short sales but this was totally avoidable.

Buyers: get your own agent to represent you.

Sellers: If you are a broker, get a different company to represent you. If you are an agent, get another agent to represent you, not your broker, and ask the bank if it is ok to be represented by someone else in your campany first, not after you are about to close.

 

If you have any questions about buying or selling a short sale in Santa Clara or San Mateo County please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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Silicon Valley Home Prices are on the rise. Inventory is low, and there are plenty of buyers out there making multiple offers the norm, not the exception. Investors have been a big factor in the market since the crash, but now it may be time for a change if you are an investor.

For the last few years investors were gobbling up foreclosed homes, short sales, and other bargain priced properties. These were often rehabbed and resold quickly. While there was often competition from other investors, it was manageable for many investors.

The landscape has changed. The inventory is so low, and the interest rates are not only low, but loans are a little easier to get than right after the crash. This along with a very high employment rate, and skyrocketing rents, has sent first time home buyers flocking back into the market.

As a result, the chance to buy a home for a low enough price to rehab and resell while making a 30% profit is not working in the investor's favor. It may happen occasionally, but not often.

However, there is still plenty of money to be made investing in real estate. Maybe it is time to look into a buy and hold strategy. It will not make you money overnight, but in the long run will bring in more money than being able to snare the occasional flip.

So if you have $500,000 to spend, why not look for 2-3 homes you can purchase, get a positive cash flow, and sell in 5 years for a great profit if the market has appreciated, or keep holding until your profits are at an acceptable level. With a buy and hold strategy the investor should be looking more at appreciation potential than getting the best price or not buying. It is still number crunching, but the set of numbers being crunched is different.

If you have any questions about buyer or selling investment properties in San Mateo or Santa Clara counties please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

DRE 01191194

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The landscape for short sales is changing. As the inventory of homes for sale stays at historically low levels all over Silicon Valley, short sales are gaining in popularity for buyers. Added to that is the fact that short sales, while not a sure thing, are getting approved at increasingly higher rates.

Short sales can still be time consuming and frustrating, but when there are so few choices for buyers they begin to look better. So if you are thinking of selling your home as a short sale here are some tips to make things smoother.

1. PICK AN EXPERIENCED SHORT SALE AGENT TO LIST YOUR HOME. IF YOU ALREADY HAVE A RELATIONSHIP WITH A REALTOR WHO IS NOT EXPERIENCED WITH SHORT SALES ASK THAT AGENT TO CO LIST WITH AN AGENT WHO KNOWS HOW TO PROCESS AND NEGOTIATE A SHORT SALE.

2. Price your home realistically, not at a rock bottom price. The market is already hot and and appreciating. Banks are not stupid. If the home is worth $600,000 and you list it for $400,000 and get an offer for $500,000 it is unlikely to get approved.

3. Have the buyer put the deposit in escrow upon acceptance by you, not at acceptance by the bank.

4. If possible get inspections before you put the home on the market. It will make the transaction go much smoother.

5. Talk to your lender before putting the house on the market. find out what they need for the short sale and get it ready to send as soon as you get the accepted offer.

6. Enjoy your short burst of popularity. In this market everyone loves a seller, even a seller of a short sale, so enjoy.

7. Hopefully in 2-4 months you will hear the words from your agent, "Congratulations, you are off the hook."

If you have any questions about buying or selling a short sale in San Mateo or Santa Clara county please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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Just got approval on another short sale in San Jose with Chase. They are getting to be one of my favorites!

This was not straight forward. Client lost his job and was not able to make payments. He tried a loan mod but did not qualify due to having too much in retirement account. Client is close to retiring.

Put condo on market and got 13 offers. The San Jose inventory for small affordable condos is quite low. Accepted an offer 30% over asking price, cash, with no appraisal contingency. Asking price was market value at the time of the listing. Last 2 sales in the complex were within 5K of listing price.

6 weeks later get approval from Chase but buyer, who was an investor, dropped out.

I start to worry because none of the other 12 offers were over 10% over list price and I am afraid Chase (or actually Freddie) will want more since first offer was so high.

Submit a back up offer for 10% over list price, cash with no contingencies. 4 weeks later get approval.

Everyone is happy!!!

So fortunately the first offer which was so high did not taint the the process, and since there was no foreclosure date set there was not a danger of losing the condo to a foreclosure. But this is a risk in short sales in the Silicon Valley. The inventory is low. There are many investors and first time buyers in the market competing with each other. Sometimes people make ridiculous offers which they later regret.

How do you know what is the best offer? Is it the highest, is it the owner who wants this home more than anything, is it the person who puts the most money in escrow, has the least contingencies?

This is a complicated question that deserves its own blog. But my best advice to sellers of short sales is start by picking an experienced agent who knows how to analyze offers from a short sale perspective. This is not the same as a traditonal sale perspective. And understand that sometimes things go south, so be prepared for some bumps in the road to finally get to the magic words:

Congratulations: You are off the hook!

If you have any questions about short sales in San Mateo or Santa Clara County please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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It is no secret that the market in Silicon Valley is crazy. The inventory has never been lower so the competition for homes is  fierce. For example, Taylor Morrison is opening up a new town home development in Sunnyvale in May and they already have 300 people on the waiting list. Homes in Palo Alto are sometimes getting over 10 offers. 

If you are a seller you may be trying to acomplish a short sale, and life becomes complicated with all of the details of supplying documents, giving the bank what they want, when they want it, and living by their timelines.

Maybe you are trying to buy an reo and you have to sign documents that make you do everything short of giving up your first born.

So the big question is "Do you want to buy a sell a house right now?" If then answer is yes then you need to listen to the person saying "because I said so." Whether that person is the listing agent for a home you want to buy, the bank who needs to approve your short sale, or the bank who owns the foreclosed property you want.

Follow directions, exactly. If the directions say fill out the disclosure package completely, fill it out. If Bank of America says they want the first 5 numbers of your social if you are trying to buy a short sale then give it.

This is not an environment for everyone, and it will not last forever, nothing does. But if you want to buy right now it is best not to have issues with authority, just do what is asked of you. This is not to say that you should go into this blindly or give up your inspection rights, but it does mean you need to follow directions and do what is asked of you.

If you are selling short, do what the bank wants. You have the right to accept or reject their their conditions but you do not get to tell them what they need to do.

If you are selling in a hot market and it is a sale with equity, don't be a bully. Give clear directions and be grateful for the people who want to buy your home.

If you have any questions about buying or selling a home in Silicon Valley please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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I just closed a Wells Fargo Short Sale that is not typical. It was a nice 3 bedroom townhome in North San Jose, close to Santa Clara. The owners were divorcing and neither could afford to buy the other one out or afford the property alone. This constitutes a hardship in most lender's minds. I have closed other Wells Fargo short sales with similar circumstances. The current owners had been able to pay the mortgage but they will not be able to in the near future because of an impending change of circumstance. These owners were current on their payments, and were hoping to sell short and then finalize their divorce.

So last fall I put the town home on the market, got a good offer, and submitted it to Wells Fargo. It was promptly denied. I was told that while this was not Wells Fargo policy, the particular investor on the loan (the person on entity who purchased the loan from Wells Fargo, and hired Wells to keep servicing the loan) had a policy of not allowing short sales unless the borrower was behind in their payments.

So, my clients stopped making payments for a few months and we put the home back on the market. We got another offer for the same price and 2 months later got an approval and closed escrow in 30 days. 

So here is what happened to the investor: They lost 5 months of payments of about $4000 a month, so $20,000 of missed payments for the same price of the home. Call me crazy, but that make no sense to me. Let me re-iterate:

THIS IS NOT THE GENERAL POLICY OF WELLS FARGO SHORT SALES.

So, if someone owed me money and I had the chance of recovering 70% of it, or 70% minus $20,000 I would go for the straight 70%. But maybe I am greedier than that investor.

If you have any questions about short sales in Santa Clara or San Mateo Counties please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E.  01191194

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Inventory is down in all segments of the market in the Silicon Valley and multiple offers are driving prices up. However, there are still short sales, and in some areas they make up a good percentage of the homes for sale. Here are the numbers:

 

Palo Alto: Single Family Homes and Condos for Sale: 48 Short Sales: 0 Percentage: 0

Mountain View Single Family Homes and Condos For Sale: 39 Short Sales: 2 Percentage Short Sales: 5.1 %

Sunnyvale: Single Family Homes and Condos: 62 Short Sales: 10  Percentage Short Sales: 16%

Cupertino: Single Family Homes and Condos:  39  Short Sales: 1  Percentage Short Sales  2.5%

Santa Clara Single Family Homes and Condos: 58  Short Sales: 19 Percentage Short Sales: 32.8%

Milpitas Single Family Homes and Condos : 56 Short Sales: 23 Percentage Short Sales: 41%

San Jose Single Family Homes and Condos: 981 Short Sales: 237 Percetnage Short Sales: 24%

Morgan Hill: Single Family Homes and Condos:  119  Short Sales: 17 Percengtage of Short Sales: 14.2%

Gilroy Single Family Homes and Condos: 123  Short Sales: 38 Percentage Short Sales: 30.9%

 

So the ciites with the highest percentage of short sales are Milpitas with 41%, Santa Clara with 32.8%, and Gilroy with 30.9%.

If you have any questions about buying or selling short sales in Santa Clara or San Mateo County please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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San Jose Short Sale Got Wells Fargo Approval

I just got approval on a Wells Fargo Short sale in San Jose. It was both a long and short road.

The long road first:

Town home put on the market in October of 2011 at $575,000. After one week we received an offer for which the seller accepted and it was sent to the bank.

Sellers were not behind on payments but are getting divorced and neither one can afford the home alone or afford to buy out the spouse.

Bank orders BPO which comes in a little under accepted price. I do not under price my short sales because I want them to get accepted by the bank. Also I knew this would be a popular property.

Negotiator immediately rejects the short sale saying the investor will not approve short sales where the seller is not behind in payments. Keep in mind this is not a Wells Fargo policy, it is the investor who bought the loan's policy.

Seller stops making payments and we plan on going back on the market in Jan of 2012.

Before we go back on the market a buyer makes an offer which is accepted by the sellers on Jan 16th.

Offer goes to Wells Fargo and this time is accepted on Feb 29th, 6 weeks after submission. 

On March 2, 2 days later the approval from the second which is a Wells Fargo HELOC arrives.

We are all happy with the results!

If you have any questions about short sales in Santa Clara or San Mateo County please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E. 01191194

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It's the beginning of the year so time for the round-up of last year's distressed property sales in Sunnyvale. So here's what happened:

 

Single family and condo townhomes :

Total sales:  835

Short Sales: 111

REO:            73

Distressed sales as a percentage of total sales: 22%

Compare to 2010

Total sales:   849

Short Sales:   106

REO:            89

Distressed sales as a percentage of total sales:  23%

 

My conclusion:

The percentage of distressed properties in Sunnyvale is virtually the same in Sunnyvale between 2011 and 2010. This percentage is starting to have an effect on prices, east of El Camino. However in the 94087 zip code there were 11 short sales and 3 REOs in 2011 compared with 4 short sales and 2 REOs in 2010 out of 295 sales in 2011 and 307 sales in 2010. While short sales almost trippled in 2011 the percentages are still very low compared to the other zip codes in Sunnyvale. 

If you have any questions about short sales or bank owned homes please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E.  01191194

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty Palo Alto, Ca. Specialist in Short Sales and Trust and Probate Sales

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San Carlos Distressed Property Watch 2011

It's the end of the year so time for the round-up of distressed property sales in San Carlos. So here's what happened:

 

Single family and condo townhomes :

Total sales:  357

Short Sales: 24

REO:           18

Distressed sales as a percentage of total sales: 11.7%

Compare to 2010

Total sales:   312

Short Sales:   17

REO:            10

Distressed sales as a percentage of total sales:  8.6%

 

My conclusion:

The percentage of distressed properties in San Carlos is a higher in 2011, 11.7% as compared to 2010, 8.6%. However, at this point the percentage is still ow enough not to have a major effect on property values.

If you have any questions about short sales or bank owned homes please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E.  01191194

 

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty Palo Alto, Ca. Specialist in Short Sales and Trust and Probate Sales

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It happens every year. Agents tell their sellers that they should wait until after the holidays to put their homes on the market. They say no one is looking during December so don't bother. Translation: Agent wants much needed and deserved time off during the holidays, or seller has a lot of family coming and does not want people traipsing through their home with all of the activity going on.

Other side of the equation: Very busy professional gets some down time the last two weeks of the year. Or, out of town relocation buyers are coming to the area to look for a place to live in the new year.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the problem. The only inventory left on the market at this time of year tends to be overpriced or weird which does not help the buyers who finally have time to look. 

I was with one of these too busy for the last 3 months buyers today. You would not believe some of the weird stuff we saw in San Carlos today. A house with a kitchen with gorgeous newer cherry cabinets, and a tiled blue stone counter that would hold bacteria in its many ridges forever. Why someone spent the money to tile a kitchen counter with these impossible to keep clean tiles when they could have put a slab of granite on for the same price is beyond my comprehension. this same home had replaced the asbestos wrapped heating ducts in the entire house, except for about 5 feet under the house. Why? If you are going to spend the money to remove asbestos on yards and yards of ducting why leave a few feet undone? Another home had 7 different kinds of flooring, on a 1400 square foot home.  A third home had removed the bathtub from the main hall bathroom and installed a double vanity. They then added a full bath with tub in the family room completely on the opposite side of the house from the bedrooms.

I was with a pre-approved buyer who can afford a million dollars with time on his hands to buy a home, and there is nothing for him to consider. 

I know I am not the only one frustrated by this disconnect between buyers and sellers.

So I am putting my money where my mouth is and putting a short sale condo in downtown San Jose on the market on Dec 26th. It is not overpriced or weird.

So sellers, next year put your home on the market in December if you want to attract hard working qualified buyers who have time to look.

If you have any questions about buying or selling a home in Santa Clara or San Mateo County please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@mrcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty Palo Alto, Ca. Specialist in Short Sales and Trust and Probate Sales

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Seems like a bizarre question doesn't it? Well guess what, it is not.  If you are selling your home as short sale the bank may have the right to send a property preservation company to the house and "secure it" if they feel the house is vacant and abandoned. But it is still my house, right?

Yes, it is still your house, even if you have stopped making payments, but here is the catch. Many loans contain clauses that say if you abandon your home the bank has a right to secure the property to preserve their interest in the home while they are waiting to re-posses it.

So here is the typical situation.  Owner has a home that they need to short sell.  They have already left the home, often to take a job somewhere else, but maybe for some other reason.  The short sale is initiated and the bank finds out the property is vacant. They do not want any damage to the property so they send out a property preservation company to secure the house.  The company changes the locks and may even board up windows. There are even some instances where the property preservation company employees help themselves to some things that were "abandoned" in the home that do not belong to them. The realtor listing the property may not be given the key and other agents may not be able to get in until the mess is straightened out.

What is the solution?  There is no fool proof solution but there are some things you can try.  If you are selling an empty home for what ever reason the best thing to do is to hire a realtor who can stage it for you. (I do this for all my listings) Once the home is staged, or even if that is not possible, take pictures. Show the bank the house is being cared for by the realtor, that the windows are not broken, and that there are locks on the door.  Take pictures of all the fixtures to show what is in the house.  Send these pictures to the bank along with the initial short sale authorization and then again with the short sale package to show that the home is not abandoned and in case there is any question about things going missing.

This may not stop the the bank every time from "securing" an un-abandoned house, but it should help.

If you have nay questions about short sales in San Mateo or Santa Clara counties please feel free to contact me.

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

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My Week in Silicon Valley Short Sales

This was not a terrible week for me with short sales. In fact, it was pretty good. Here's the summary:

 

1. Closed a Menlo Park Short Sale with Bank of America, I represented the buyer.  It was smooth, and took 3 months start to finish.

2.  Another buyer is buying a short sale in Sunnyvale.  The file had been lost in bowls of HAFA, (government assisted short sales), but the listing agent managed to find it, get it back to a tradional sale, and we are waiting for a negotiator to be assigned.  we are 6 weeks into it.

3.  My Menlo Park Short Sale Listing with Chase has been in and out of escrow 4 times now.  the investor for Chase wants more money than the house is worth based in its condition.  After being with the latest negotiator 6 weeks we got another response from the investor asking for more money now than what they approved last time.  The buyer has now agreed to the previously approved price and we are waiting to hear back from teh negotiator.

4.  My Santa Clara Short Sale Listing was submitted 5 weeks ago.  It finally got a negotiator this week.

 

So all in all it has not been a bad week.  Short sales are still long, and can have problems, but all in all there are a lot of yeses so they are worth pursuing if you can not keep your home and want to avoid foreclosure.

If you have any questions about short sales in Santa Clara or San Mateo County please feel free to contact me.

 

Marcy Moyer

Keller Williams Realty

www.marcymoyer.com

marcy@marcymoyer.com

650-619-9285

D.R.E.  01191194

 

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2. Marcy Moyer of Keller Williams Realty is not associated with the government, and our service is not approved by the government or your lender; and 
3. Even if you accept this offer and use our service, your lender may not agree to change your loan.

Marcy Moyer Keller Williams Realty Palo Alto, Ca. Specialist in Trust and Probate Sales

 

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