Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/28/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Refinance Index: increased 1.3 percent from the previous week
Purchase Index: increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier. This third straight weekly increase in the Purchase Index was driven by government purchase applications which increased 3.4 percent from last week, while conventional purchase applications were essentially flat.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased 1.3 percent from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 5.4 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.48 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will decrease 7 percent to $686 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the boost from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall by about 42 percent to $797 billion in 2010. We continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given that mortgage rates have continued to remain close to historical lows.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/28/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: decreased 5.9 percent from the previous week.
Purchase Index: increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier and is the highest Purchase Index observed in the survey since the end of June
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 78.0 percent of total applications from 79.4 percent the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 5.7 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Federal Reserve policymakers have been increasingly clear that they will keep their target rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended period. They have also made no moves to this point in terms of asset sales from their trillion dollar portfolio of mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs large buyouts of delinquent loans from MBS have substantially been completed by this point, so there are no longer large-scale purchases of MBS by unconventional buyers artificially constraining mortgage rates .
Purchase application data from MBAs Weekly Application Survey show no rebound in activity to date, with apps remaining at 13 year lows (15-year lows for conventional purchase mortgages). As the pending home sales and housing starts numbers showed, this drop in applications clearly predicts similar sized drops in home sales over the next couple of months.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/07/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009
Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30% compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.57 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending July 8, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.58 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.20 percent. This rate is yet another all-time low in Freddie Mac’s 39-year survey.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.07 percent with an average 0.7 point , up from last week when it averaged 4.04 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.69 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.79 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent. This rate is also an all-time low since Freddie Mac began tracking it in 2005.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.75 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.80 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.82 percent.
Freddie Sayz
With mortgage rates falling to historic lows, refinance activity has been strong over the past three months, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the effective mortgage rate of all loans outstanding was just below six percent in the first quarter of 2010, the lowest since the series began in 1977. Since the start of the second quarter, two out of three mortgage applications on average were for refinancing, according the Mortgage Bankers Association .
Household balance sheets also improved in other ways over the first three months of the year. The Federal Reserve reported household net worth rose by almost $1.1 trillion in the first quarter of 2010. The share of credit card loans that were 30-days or more past due fell to the lowest since first quarter of 2002, according to the American Bankers Association . Finally, the aggregate household debt burdens were at a level not seen since the third quarter of 2000.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/07/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009
Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30% compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/07/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 6.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 6.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: increased 9.2 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 15, 2009
Purchase Index: has decreased eight of the last nine weeks
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 78.7 percent of total applications from 76.8 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since April 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.4 percent from 4.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Mortgage rates remained near record lows last week, as incoming data on the job and housing markets were weaker than anticipated. As more homeowners locked in to these low rates, the level of refinance applications increased to a new 13-month high, said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. For the month of June, purchase applications declined almost 15% relative to the prior month, and were down more than 30% compared to April, the last month in which buyers were eligible for the tax credit.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/23/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.0 percent compared with the previous week
Refinance Index: decreased 7.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased to 73.8 percent of total applications from 74.8 percent the previous week.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 74.8 percent of total applications from 72.2 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since the week ending December 18, 2009
Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.69 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 24, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.75 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.42 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.87 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.84 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.89 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.99 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.82 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.93 percent. This is the lowest the 1-year ARM has been since the week ending May 6, 2004 when it averaged 3.76 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Mortgage rates for all but traditional 1-year ARMs hit all time record lows this week in our survey while activity in the housing market slowed in May following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Freddie Mac began collecting rates for 30 year fixed loans in April 1971, 15-year fixed mortgages in September 1991 and 5-year hybrid ARMs in January 2005.
The record low for traditional 1 year ARMs of 3.36 percent occurred during the week of March 25, 2004. Both new and existing home sales showed unexpected declines in May. Existing sales fell 2.2 percent, compared to the market consensus forecast of a 6.0 percent gain, based on figures published by the National Association of Realtor . Sales of new homes fell 32.7 percent to an annualized rate of 300,000 units, which was the largest monthly drop and slowest pace since records began in 1963, according to the Census Bureau
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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 12.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday
Refinance Index: decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier
Purchase Index: decreased 16.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 30.4 percent lower than Memorial Day week last year.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 72.2 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week. This is the first decline in the refinance share in five weeks
Arm Share: decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week, which is the third consecutive weekly decrease.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.72 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 10, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.79 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.59 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.17 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 15-year FRM in August of 1991 and sets another record low for the fourth straight week.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.17 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.91 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.95 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.04 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending May 27, 2004 when it averaged 3.87 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Following a relatively weak employment report, bond yields fell this week and mortgage rates followed, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Private payrolls rose by 41,000 jobs in May, less than a quarter of the market forecast consensus of an 180,000 gain. Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgage hover near the record low set on December 3, 2009 in our survey; the Primary Mortgage Market Survey began in April 1971.
Meanwhile, rates on 15-year fixed mortgages set another record low for the fourth week in a row. Overall, the economy does show signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve reported in its June 9th regional economic review that the economy strengthened in all 12 of its Districts over April and May. It also noted that loan quality was stable or improving in most Districts, but remained an issue for banks with large exposure to real estate
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/12/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 57.7 percent of total applications from 51.9 percent the previous week
Arm Share: remained unchanged at 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The recent plunge in rates on US Treasury securities, due to a flight to quality as investors worldwide sought shelter from the Greek debt crisis, benefited US mortgage borrowers last week. Rates on 30 year mortgages dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. As a result, refinance applications for conventional loans jumped, hitting their highest level in six weeks, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. In contrast, purchase applications fell almost 10 percent in the first week following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, as the tax credit likely pulled some sales into April that would otherwise have occurred in May or later
Projections
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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Rates Mostly Unchanged This Week
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.06 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 29, 2010, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.48 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.00 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.03 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.80 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.22 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.77 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed loans have averaged about 5 percent over the first four months of this year, staying within a band of roughly a quarter percentage point and virtually matching 2009s annual average, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. These low rates have been helping to moderate house price declines over the course of the year.
Prices on existing homes showed a 12-month increase of 0.7 percent in February, which was the first annual increase since December 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city composite index [PDF]. In addition, nine cities experienced positive growth, matching the number in January. Further, the Census Bureaus Constant Quality price index showed that new home prices rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter on an annual basis.
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