Blog

shadow (5)

Ohhhhh the Moratorium

Posted by Anthony Mann on December 23, 2010 at 3:47am

Its been about 5 years since I started in this REO indurstry.  Progressively, the game has changed and things have become harder and harder to deal with on a small level.  I have 18 employees and 20 sales agents, so we get it all done here.  But now, during the same time every year, we have these 2-3 weeks of nothingness.  What I don't understand is why there is a moratorium?  Listen, I have a heart, and I understand people do fall onto bad times, but c'mon.  You took out a mortgage a few years ago, that you, your wife, your children, you parents, friends, etc all knew you couldn't afford.  But, it was the "american Dream" so you did it and never looked back, until you couldn't make a payment anymore!  IF you are a tenant of a foreclosed property, I truly feel for you, and I will do anything I can to help you out during these times.  I have tenants all the time who tell me they have been making their payments for 2 years and they cant understand how this happened.  You DESERVE CASH FOR KEYS.  

 

So now what, the banks out the 300k they gave you, your living in a house that you don't pay for, the bank is paying your taxes and utilities, and you cant even leave the house in good shape when you leave!  Show some pride and be amicable and get out when you stop paying!  There is no reason a bank should have to pay you a Cash for Keys of even a dollar!  You should just leave!  Lets think about this logically, I buy a car for 50,000.  I pay 5,000 up front and i'm left with a payment of about 1,000 a month.  If I stop paying for the car, does the car company come to my house and offer to give me THOUSANDS of dollars to give them the car back?  No, they hire a tow truck company, and come take the thing off my driveway!!

 

On top of all the ridiculousness of people living in houses that they cant afford, I am a born and bred New Yorker.  In this lovely state, we are referred to as an "Attorney State" and a "Landlord State".  So, on average, it takes about TWO YEARS, yes TWO YEARS, to get a foreclosure completed here.  So thats TWO YEARS of not making a payment to the bank, before they can even have the DEED for the property!!!  Then if I still don't want to leave, guess what?  I can usually stay another 1-3 years while the LANDLORD (The foreclosing bank) tried to EVICT me!!!  So in essence, I can live in a house, with NO EXPENSE, for 3-5 years!  Why on EARTH does it take this long?  And then, to top it all off, the banks are nice enough to stop "evicting" people during Thanksgiving, and this year between December 20th-January 3rd.  Now, although it seems like the "right thing to do", if the eviction of a homeowner happens to fall during that time, let them go live back home with their parents until they can afford to move out, OR use the past 3-5 years of mortgage, tax, utility payments that you have NOT made, and go rent a place you can ACTUALLY AFFORD!!!

 

I guess I would really just like to see the 7.5 million houses that are in the backlog (The gloomy shadow inventory) come to market.  Maybe we can actually stabalize the housing prices if we sell off the homes we need to in order for the market to correct itself.  :)

 

 

Read more…

There'll be no Tsaumi......

Posted by Mike L. Williams on February 26, 2010 at 6:00am

The long predicted tsaumi of forecloses is not forthcoming. This, is according to Rick Sharga, SVPof Realty Trac. According to Rick, the bank will release the 'shadow inventory' to the market over the next couple of years in a controlled fashion.**

Our own Carlos Silva predicted the same in an article last August. see link

This way only makes sense, because if the banks were to flood the market with all of their pent up inventory it would apply downward pressure on pricing. In turn, further exacerbating the depressed housing market and home prices.

The 'shadow inventory' exists but the 'tsaumi' apears to not be heading our way........

**From NFSTI conference on 2/25/10 sponsored by Dan Waterman

Read more…

Shadow Inventory? A colleague sent a link to this video, thought I would pass it on

Posted by Victoria Frieberg on October 23, 2009 at 6:09am
so many concerns, conspiracy theories, questions on if the government is trying to lock up the nations economy by controlling the market..It is mind boggeling. This video does give a pretty unbiased take on one more factor in the totally murky world we seem to be navigating. Watch and absorb seems to be the method of gaining knowledge, hope this can add to your own database...
Read more…

Housing Bubble Smackdown: Bigger Crash Ahead Huge "Shadow Inventory"

Posted by Carlos H. Silva Sr. on April 22, 2009 at 8:00am
Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed. The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama's anti-foreclosure program---which is a combination of mortgage modifications and refinancing---a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to 9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it's clear now that the program will fall well-short of its objective.In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside indicating bigger adjustments dead-ahead. Trend-lines are steeper now than ever before--nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they're crashing and crashing hard. Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, Notices of Default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These Notices will turn into foreclosures in 4 to 5 months time creating another cascade of foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 MILLION MORE FORECLOSURES BETWEEN NOW AND 2011. It's a disaster bigger than Katrina. Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. 40 percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There's nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of foreclosures have been relisted for sale suggesting more hanky-panky at the banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?600,000 "DISAPPEARED HOMES?"For the rest of the story follow this link: http://activerain.com/blogsview/1045921/Housing-Bubble-Smackdown-Bigger-Crash-Ahead-Huge-Shadow-Inventory
Read more…

Real Estate & REO Outlook for 2009

Posted by Seb Frey on March 14, 2009 at 5:47am
It's been a while since my last blog post - too long! It's not because I'm lazy, it's because of my crushing workload. My team has been expanding to keep up with it all, but even so, I find myself at least as busy as ever, and possibly even more so.I wanted to share with you all my view of where we are headed for the rest of the year. There's a lot of talk about bail-outs and hitting the bottom and market rebounds, and there's also a lot of talk about falling off the economic cliff, outright economic depression, etc. I want to chime in with my own $0.02 - and that's probably about all its worth, but this community is about sharing, so here goes.I do think that the bail-outs are going to help stabilize the credit markets. To be honest, I have not seen a lot of qualified buyers having problems with their loans. People who have good credit scores, good incomes, and good debt-to-income ratios have been getting loans this whole time. People with dicey credit and iffy income have had a much harder time of it - which actually makes sense. A lot of these people maybe should not be buying real estate - unfortunately, that's a big chunk of the adult population, and there's a lot of real estate that needs to get bought, so it's understandable that the powers that be would want to put the credit into their hands to buy these properties.As for Obama's Homeowner Rescue Plan - in my market (northern California), there are precious few people who are going to qualify for this plan. Even nationally, where many more people will be able to take advantage of it, many people simply won't - I believe this epidemic of rational default (or ruthless default as some would say) will continue un-abated. I do think that the Homeowner Rescue Plan will in fact save some homes - and in large part, probably only those of the "most worthy" - that is, the people who are least likely to be back in default shortly after rescue.I think it's a good thing that the government get actively involved in trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again. I am sure they're bungling the job and that somehow, it could be done much better and cheaper - but I think a large part of the problem is lack of confidence in the system - and if the government shows confidence that it can take steps to fix the system, that will go a long way towards restoring stability and calm.Having said that, I'll say this: I think the bottom is a ways off yet. For my business, 2008 was an extremely busy year - and I expect that 2009 will be busier. I expect there will be more foreclosures in 2009 than there were in 2008, despite the government's valiant efforts. And that is as it should be. There are simply too many homes in the houses of people who cannot afford them. Much better in the long run to move these properties from weak ownership to strong ownership.I also foresee the foreclosures moving up the economic ladder - increasingly, more and more middle, upper-middle, and executive/luxury homes are going to be foreclosed on. You see, in a normal economic cycle, first you have a recession, then you have increasing mortgage delinquencies, defaults, and foreclosures, accompanied by a drop in real estate values.This time around, we had a drop in real estate values, brought on by a "credit crisis" (or, the end of ultra-lax lending practices), followed by an increase in delinquencies - and then, recession. In a normal cycle, we would just now be at the beginning of a surge in foreclosures, not nearing the end of of one. Think we've hit the bottom? Think again.You do see, hear, and read news stories about positive signs that we may be approaching a bottom. I'm pretty sure, though, that I've been hearing those stories for quite some time now, at least a year - and the bottom seems no closer today than it was a year ago. And let's not forget the shadow inventory - it's real, it's big, and it's out there, waiting. I am getting listings that have been secured and vacant for months, never listed, never assigned to an agent - they've been sitting, for months, just rotting and dropping in value with the market around them.In short, I expect it will be another banner year for those of us in the REO Brokerage business. I'd be curious to hear how 2009 is shaping up in your market.
Read more…
Liberty House Realty | Online Montessori Preschool | Digital Marketing Agency