DSNews ran an article this morning with results from a recent survey revealing over half of the country still believes we are in a housing crisis.
Although it is true that some areas in the country are still struggling to put the crisis behind them, markets from Florida to California and everywhere in between are experiencing a robust recovery and many submarkets have been realizing year-over-year double digit appreciation since 2012.
So why do some people still think the housing market is underperforming?
3 Reasons—Uninformed. Underinformed. Misinformed.
The reality is, real estate data is at least 3-6 months old by the time the mainstream media gets their hands on it before reporting it back to the public. Keep in mind, the sale of a home and it's selling price is recorded after the transaction closes. The time lapse between contract and closing averages 90-120 days.
Also real estate statistics are released on a month-end/end-of-quarter and year-end basis. If you're not paying close attention you could be a year behind on your outlook of the housing market. I suspect this is why more than two and five adults believe the housing market today continues to be a serious problem.
Example: A house that sells on Jan 1 and closes on April 1 doesn't show up in the data mix until the end of May when the month end reports are released. Worse yet, it won't count as a statistic in the quarterly analysis until the end of July. This is especially problematic in a fast moving market.
By the time the general public get's in the loop it's old news. Armed with old information when selling your home or buying a new one can be dangerous and could cost you thousands of dollars.
How can you get reliable and up-to-date information?
To start you can visit the County Records/Tax Assessor website in the area to search sale prices, closing dates and property details. You can also check out Trulia, Zillow and Realtor.com to browse through homes for sale and obtain information on closed homes. These sources will give you a general idea of what homes have been selling for and the current asking prices in a given market.
Your best source for real estate trends has always been a good local agent. Most real estate agents are more than willing to share their knowledge. They are the experts and can easily provide you with a current market analysis summarizing for sale, sold and pending activity in the area.
Everything about the real estate industry is time sensitive, the old saying "no news is good news" doesn't apply.
Keeping your ion REAL ESTATE.
Michael Humphries, designated broker for Compass Roads Realty, Inc. and real estate author covers local and national real estate news, industry trends and market analytics. Read more of his work here.
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Comments
I consider it always in crisis, just for buyers at this point in time. The chance of millennials purchasing up all the FTB's, highly doubtful in my opinion. The only thing keeping up with real inflation are colleges costs. Sure, doctors, lawyers, engineers, scientists, etc. won't have a hard time paying it down 10 years down the road with a house to add. But the other majority of professions which enter the workforce well below 6 figures upon graduation with an average debt of $33k heading into 2014? With housing prices up I don't see millennials propping up housing any higher than the current investor bubble.
I agree, some areas are experiencing a slower recovery than others. Overall though, the macros are showing signs of sustainability in the housing market throughout the country. According to recent reports, the only metros where asking prices were down year-over-year were El Paso, Hartford, Albany, and Little Rock. You're right about the Millennial generation, we are counting on them.
Some of this is deceptive since many areas have seen almost no new construction for years. There is a diminished FTB buyer pool which is basically the one that floats all the boats. The 2nd home market is great in the million dollar range. The lower & mid ranges are still underwater though. The fact is there may be appreciation from the severe lows but there are still alot of owners that can't move up or out because they don't have the equity anymore. If the current generation who got screwed when they graduated and couldn't find jobs makes up for lost time and starts buying, things will be better in a more across the board fashion than they are now.
Oh NO! My apologies Michael. I credited the wrong person.
Jesus - Your comments are always informative.
The investment bamkers, hedge fund managers and other high rollers have figured out that thy can lower credit standards (FHA did it last week, Wells and Citi the week before that), make more loans to people who cannot afford to buy, then when everyone is so far in debt, they abandon the homes and the bubble pops again.
The idiots in DC will bail them out because, "They are too big to fail".
I predict that there will be bubbles and pops abut every 7-9 years from now on. Know what else? I don't care. I make money when banks throw money around and I make money when they unload the REOs.
We are now in a crazy world with little rhyme or reason to the middle class who have built this country.
Did you know that Wall Streeters are about the largest political donors in the country?
On question - What is good real estate market? When prices are going up or coming down?
50% of American Can’t Afford Their Home.
A recent survey commissioned by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation revealed that 50% of Americans had to make a sacrifice in order to cover their rent or mortgage. Sacrifices including things like; getting a second job, not making a savings or retirement payment, not going to see the doctor, charging more on credit cards or even selling the home and moving to a lesser neighborhood just to have a more affordable monthly payment.
The survey goes further and ask participants how they felt about housing shifting towards a more positive economic outlook and 70% believe that we are not out of the woods and that we are in the middle of the crisis now or the worst is yet to come.
As a Realtor, the most frightening statistic from this report was that 43% of participants said that real estate is no longer an excellent long term investment and one of the best ways to build wealth and assets. The reason this is so scary to me is because, just yesterday I read a report from the US Commerce Department that said, fewer Americans today are saving that in 2007, right before The Great Recession.
What this means to me is that 50% of Americans are burdened by their home, so much so, that they can’t afford to do anything else. If 50% of you reading this can’t make a savings payment, had to take a 2nd job, or put off seeing the doctor because you didn’t have the funds to do those things and make your mortgage payment, why are you still in that home?
A home is still a great way to build wealth but, only if you can afford it. If you can’t afford it, the home burdens you, it stifles you, it destroys you. How do I know this? As a foreclosure Realtor and short sale specialist, I see the results of being house poor every day. Clients call me, distressed, upset, angry and at wits end, unsure of what to do when they have sacrificed all they can to make that mortgage payment but, are still falling behind.
I look at current unemployment rates, the current under employed rates and the discouraged worker rates, or those who have just given up looking for a job and I couple that with the subject of this blog and I say to myself, no wonder 70% of Americans don’t feel the housing market is turning around or that the economy is recovering because for at least 50% of us, we are struggling to make that mortgage or rent payment each month.