These are staggering numbers. I heard a lecture from an analyst from Anderson School of Business at UCLA which was a bit gloomier than this but these are some of the gravest predictions I have seen in print. Will we see more aggressive programs from the administration to combat the forecasts? The various moratoriums so far have had less than robust results. A contact at Wells Fargo tells me they have had less than a 1% success rate in loan mods. I can't see a substantial turn around until at least 2013, any thoughts?From Housingwire.com.By AUSTIN KILGOREAugust 6, 2009 4:18 PM CSTDeutsche Bank (DB: 66.81 +3.39%) believes continued declines in home values will increase the number of US mortgagors with negative equity from 14m in Q109 to 25m in Q111.According to a report Deutsche released this week, the 25m represents a projected 48% of all US mortgages. While subprime and option adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) are the biggest source of underwater borrowers in the current market, Deutsche said a larger percentage of prime conforming and prime jumbo borrowers will join the fray.Prime conforming and prime jumbo will make up 79% of all US mortgages and Deutsche estimates 41% of conforming and 47% of jumbo will be underwater, up from current levels of 16% and 29%, respectively.This rapid influx of underwater borrowers will have a significant impact on default rates. In addition to future underwater borrowers being forced into default from a “life event” — unemployment, divorce, disability, etc. — Deutsche warned others may “ruthlessly” or strategically default.Increased defaults in the middle class will suppress consumption, added Deutsche, further slowing housing recovery.It’s hard to predict exactly how high the default rates will go. The current housing recession is unique in that it was brought on and perpetuated by a number of factors — unstable loan products, crashing housing prices, and unemployment, among others. Deutsche cited a study of the Massachusetts housing decline of the late 1980s and early 1990s that showed less than 7% of underwater borrowers defaulted as perspective on the default rate for underwater borrowers.But in the early 1990s, borrower and loan product quality were significantly better, the home price decline wasn’t as severe, and unemployment was lower. Deutsche said the 7% experienced in Massachusetts should be the floor — a best-case scenario — for the surge of underwater borrowers it expects in 2011.Borrowers with loan products with already high underwater rates will only get worse.By 2011, Deutsche predicts 89% of option ARM borrowers will be underwater, up from 77% in 2009. The rate of underwater subprime borrowers will increase from 50% to 69%, and underwater Alt-A borrowers will increase from 49% to 66%.An important factor to consider is how deep underwater borrowers will be, and it depends on their loan type.For prime conforming borrowers, Deutsche predicts the number of borrowers with negative equity — loan to value (LTV) between 105% and 125% — will virtually equal the number of borrowers with what it calls “severe negative equity” — LTV over 125%.But Deutsche expects the 89% of option ARM borrowers underwater to be split with most — 77% of total option ARM borrowers — holding severe negative equity. For underwater prime jumbo loans, more borrowers will have severe negative equity — 29% of the combined 47%.The split for underwater Alt-A borrowers is expected to take an opposite proportion, with 49% of all Alt-A borrowers in negative equity and only 18% in severe negative equity. Underwater subprime borrowers will face a similar breakdown.
Read more…
Once again misinformation hitting the media! What this article doesn't say is that inventory in California has decreased primarily due to lack of new foreclosures coming on the market. Like most REO brokers in California I have watched my inventory shrink month after month as moratoriums from various institutions have worked themselves through fruition. In addition the banks have been holding back inventory trying to change the Mark to Market valuation system. A quick look at the mls will tell you there is just nothing to sell at this point. Watch the reported inventory numbers for August. It should be off the charts.Michael HowardXcel Reowww.xcelreo.comwww.xcelinvestments.comMay 29, 2009With almost a 50% increase in year-over-year sales, the inventory of unsold existing single-family homes for sale in California has been cut in half, from a 9.8 months' supply in April 2008 to 4.6 months' supply this April, the state's Realtors reported. However, while sales were up 49.2% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 540,360 — the eighth straight month above the 500,000 level — the median price of houses sold in the month declined by more than a third, largely because the majority of sales were at the low-end of the market. "Inventory levels for homes in the under $500,000 segment shrank to nearly three months in April, compared with almost 10 months a year ago, while unsold inventory in the more than $1 million segment rose to approximately 17 months, compared with roughly 10 months in April 2008," says California Association of Realtors President James Liptak. "The dramatic difference in inventory exemplifies how the low end of the market is attracting more first-time buyers and investors, creating a shortage of distressed properties for sale." The median price of existing homes sold in the month was $256,700, a 36.5 percent decrease from the revised $404,470 a year ago. But it was 1.4% greater than March's $253,040 median price. CAR's figures are based on data collected from more than 90 local Realtor associations statewide.
Read more…
