reasons (2)

The Reasons Why We Do Not Have High REO Inventories

The business head lines today read, “US Labor Participation Rate at Lowest Level in 30 Years” or “US Labor Participation Rate at Lowest Rate Since Carter Administration” and yet, I am trying to figure out why my REO inventory this year has shrunk to pre 2007 bubble bursting levels. To make this point a little more pointed, let me share a little statistic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our current unemployment rate is 7.3% and the last time we were at 7.3% was December of 2008. Now, think back to December of 2008, think of your REO inventory….are you at that level today? I would venture to say, likely not. Are you still confused as to what my point is? Well, let me say it this way. If you add in the participation rate with the unemployment numbers, you get a “real” unemployment number of 9.4% and the last time we were at 9.4% or higher was May of 2009 thru November 2010 so, think back to you REO inventory then….are you at those same levels today? Once again, I venture to say….likely not.

So, how is it that we have a “real” unemployment rate at or higher than the worse unemployment we have had accordingly to the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the past 4-5 years and yet, we don’t have a correlated REO inventory?

Well, I am no economist however, I have some speculative theories, let me share.

  1. Obama Administration Homeowner Assistance Programs: Obama has directed HUD and the US Department of Treasury to stop the foreclosure crisis by implementing several foreclosure avoidance programs through joint department efforts like the Making Home Affordable programs. Do you know how many entitlement programs there are? Likely you don’t so, let me share…..
    1. HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program)
    2. PRA (Principal Reduction Alternative)
    3. 2MP (Second Lien Modification Program)
    4. HARP (Home Affordable Refinance Program)
    5. FHA2LP (Treasury / FHA Second Lien Program)
    6. UP (Home Affordable Unemployment Program)
    7. EHLP (Emergency Homeowner’s Loan Program)
    8. FHA Forbearance
    9. HECM (Home Equity Conversion Mortgage)

So, you had no idea…did you? Granted, my blog isn’t long enough to go into details on each of these programs with you however, for more information you can call the NSC at 1-877-622-8525. The Obama administration has used all of these foreclosure avoidance strategies in a very similar way the Community Reinvestment Act set up , built up and ultimately collapsed our economy in 2007 with the bursting of the real estate bubble. Oooops, “did I say that?” HELL yes, I did.

That’s right, the reason we don’t have REO inventory as REO Professionals is because our President has decimated our industry by artificially and manipulatively used foreclosures as a political tool for re-election of himself and his party. Sadly, most of the American public don’t understand what this does to home values……so, let me explain. It artificially inflates home prices by restricting legitimate inventory from hitting the market place. It sets up our country for a 10(+) year trickling of these vacant, distressed, properties to the market place. Ok..sure, it can be argued that by doing this we are stabilizing the housing market and sure, I will relent and say….it does however, only for the short term. In fact, it makes things a little worse because, we end up sitting on inventory and God forbid, another economic crisis hits or the current one drags on for longer than expected and we end up with more and more and more and more water behind an aging, over burdened, crippled, dilapidated damn that is ready to blow.

Think of the housing crisis as a man mad lake with one side plugged up by a huge damn. Think of the water in the lake as all of the houses that are distressed, under water, risk of foreclosure. Right now, our lake is so full, we have foreclosures literally spilling over the top. Our economy…the damn, is barely holding and with a growing “Shadow” inventory of REO homes, high unemployment, high “real” unemployment and these continuing foreclosure avoidance / rescue programs……we will have a seriously problem, eventually.

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1. Unemployment: Until people have the income to afford their mortgages, we will not see a recovery in the housing market. I believe a direct correlation exist between unemployment and mortgage defaults, the higher unemployment gets the more defaults we will see. This ultimately leads to more inventory and of course, lower home prices. 2. Tightening Credit Standards: The harder it gets for people to obtain the necessary credit to purchase a home the slower it will take to reduce the inventory we have. Make no mistake, I don’t believe in loosening credit standards for the sake of it but, it’s a fact that if people can’t get credit, inventory won’t reduce quickly and therefore slowing if not halting a housing recovery. 3. Artificial Government Inventory Control: In other words, arbitrary influence by the Government to keep unworthy homeowners in their homes at all cost. Make no mistake, this is housing inventory control in the most negative way. I have GSE Investor loan reinstatements after foreclosure on my desk right now where Fannie / Freddie is offering to reinstate a homeowners loan where they will consider unemployment benefits as income……..seriously! 4. Energy Prices: Did you realize that you are paying .86 cents more for gas this week than you were this same week last year? Most likely you haven’t noticed because we have all been pre-occupied with the nations job losses, underwear bombers, Massachusetts election, and Washington bleeding red ink. You may not have actively noticed it but, if energy prices continue to rise people will have less discretionary spending and that pulls buyers out of the market and couple this with Great Depression level unemployment and we end up with more housing inventory. 5. Risk of Hyperinflation: As the US currency continues to looses value against it’s competitors we find ourselves having no other choice but to increase inflation. If the Government continues to spend / make money with less and less value people refuse to hold onto the Dollar and start to move their assets into other currencies or metals and therefore an uncontrollable rise of inflation begins.
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