projections (2)

2016 Spring / Summer Mid TN Housing Projections and Why You Should Be Concerned.

By Jesus “Jesse” D. Gonzalez Jr. Broker / Owner of Liberty House Realty LLC

Mid Tn housing recovery is poised to bust.

For many, here in mid TN, you have seen your home prices rise over the past 12 – 18 months. If you live in the inner core of Nashville and your neighborhood has gone through a gentrification, not only have you see prices rise, you have seen them sky rocket. For all intents and purposes, the vast majority of mid TN residents can say their property values have at least returned to 2007 pre-recession levels and in some cases, have exceeded pre-recession levels. This robust housing recovery is spurred on by several different factors however, I am going to focus only on a few here in this blog, in order to explain why I believe our market is poised to bust in 2016.

Free Money

Like it or not, let’s all be honest and acknowledge the largest impact to our property values rising is the role government has played in making mortgages easier and easier to get, all in the name of affordable housing policy. If we step back a little and take a look at the even larger picture that government has played in creating cheap or even free money, you have to go all the way back and look at all the bailouts and freewheeling Federal Reserve policies on lowering and lowering interest rates. Lets also not forget the massive capital injections, better known as quantitative easing. All of this cheap or in some cases, free money is that our economy has started growing and as a result, the housing correlation that the better the economy does, the more housing we need has kicked in. As a direct result, here in mid TN, homes have seen more competition from buyers and a direct result prices have gone up.

The problem with this model is that borrowing money can’t always be free….or at least very cheap. Due to fears of inflation, interest rates have to go up, just as we saw last month. Of course, raising interest rates isn’t the problem, it’s raising rates when essentially the fundamentals of our economy are unchanged and the lessons of the 2007 collapse seem to be fading in the minds of policy makers and Wall street alike. The really scary part is, here we are, moving our economy forward through “free money” policies with no real plan in place to guard us from having to slam on the brakes, if necessary.

Europe is no Joke

People are always talking about how China is the huge economy in the room and that when it sneezes, the rest of the world economies get a cold. The problem is, that’s not true. Some of the world’s economies will get a cold but, others will catch the flu and, still others may end up terminal. Let’s be clear on a couple things about Europe, their economic fundamentals are no better than our own and in some cases, when it comes to wage growth, unemployment and the migration of refugees, their economies are fragile. Let’s not forget, some of those countries like Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland all had massive debt crisis that caused austerity measures that resulted in civil unrest. If and let me be clear, when China’s market collapse, as our number 1 buying partner, our economy takes a hit because the Chineese people just can’t buy as much of our stuff but, when this happens, it also causes Europe to take a hit and being our 2nd largest trading partner not buying as much of our stuff, it would be a 1, 2, knockout punch for our economy. If and I speculate when, China’s market really starts nose diving in 2016, it will take Europe with it and as such, our two largest trading partners will keep their hands in their pockets and we will be left with products on the shelf that aren’t moving. Prices will drop, profits will be lost and short selling will begin. This will cause a ripple effect through our economy which will result in job losses, starting with the economic low classes. I truly do believe some of the first housing casualties we will see at the start of this next recession will be low income housing and by the time we react, it may be too late.

China is a Bust

I hear the media reports, like many of you, and I am lead to believe that China is now the largest economy in the world however, what if that was all a lie? What if it’s not as big as they say they are and all they have been doing is lying to the world about exactly what they are capable of economically? What if all these money control policies they enforce on their market place like, no short selling and the mandatory 15% cut off were all in place just to keep the world from seeing that all the money we have put into China to develop its economy and turn it into a consumer economy was a waste? Even worse, what if….just stop and think about this for a minute, what if this fall of the Chinese economy was purposefully planned by their Communist regime in an effort to collapse the American economy to ensure a change in the world currency from the American Dollar to the Chinese Yuan? China is no trading partner with the USA, it’s a trading adversary and sadly, our politicians don’t see it this way and as a result, we are heavily leveraged and as a result, we will pay the price with whole American companies collapsing with China and as a result, job losses on a global scale.

Unemployment, not as it Seems

So…you think unemployment is at 5%.....how wrong you are my friend and let me explain. In an effort to prop up a failing domestic jobs policy, the Obama administration has decided to put some of that common core math logic to our unemployment numbers. In fact, our government has 6 different ways of describing unemployment and sadly, most people don’t even know this. The U3 Unemployment rate is the “official” unemployment rate used by the bureau of labor statistics however, it’s not the real unemployment number. For the real unemployment number, you need to look at the U6 Unemployment number which as of last month, was at a 9.9% unemployed. You heard me correctly, that 5% you have been hearing on the news is a farce at best. In fact, this is why our economy isn’t seeing a boom with gas prices as low as they have been because the truth of the matter is, all that money people are saving from cheap gas is going to pay bills just to survive because nearly 10% of our population is unemployed or marginally employed at best and can’t spend those energy savings on anything other than bills, just to survive. For more information on where our nation’s real unemployment is at and descriptions of what it all means, visit, http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp

Wage Growth or Lack Thereof

Not only is our government trying to deceive us about the unemployment status of America, even worse is that those who do have jobs are noticing that they aren’t making as much as they did before the Great Recession. Simply put, we have so many people looking for jobs, employers can offer jobs at lower and lower wages. It’s a matter of supply and demand. When you have hundreds of people competing for the same jobs, that competition puts downward pressure on wages and benefits. Even if you have a job, you are much less likely going to ask for that annual raise when you know you have 20 people in the wings ready to take your job for the same wage you’re making now…or in some cases, willing to do your job for less. Truth is, wage growth is a great way to see just exactly how well or in this case, how poorly our economy is doing. Let’s face it, if we were doing well as a whole, people would have jobs and those jobs would pay well and the truth is, that’s not where we are at. Make no mistake my friends, we aren’t as recovered as the media and politicians would have you believe.

Energy May Send Us Into a Nose Dive

Everyone need to be watching energy prices, specifically the cost of sweet crude oil. Essentially, this is where America get’s it’s gasoline and gasoline is one of the biggest cost of goods and services. Today, crude got below $30.00 a gallon and closed at $30.44 per barrel. The fact is, most American energy companies can’t pay their bills with crude prices at this level. What’s causing me to stay up at night is the fact that leading economist are suggesting, by end of the year, crude prices could be as low at $22.00 per barrel. At this price, we will begin seeing energy companies go bankrupt and massive energy sector layoffs will begin. Truth of the matter is, I really suspect that 2016 will be the year that the oil wars escalates, prices fall and the largest contributing factor to the 2016 recession will be cheap oil.

Conclusion

Our economy has a lot of downward pressure from many different sources both nationally and locally. Like I said earlier, we just don’t know what the straw will be to break the camel’s back. Right now, I see too many home buyers paying too much for their homes, yes…I said that. Sadly, I do believe a lot of buyers are going to be stuck holding the bag when the bottom falls out of this fragile economy.

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The housing boom may very well be on its way to a bust. As many of you know from news sources the stock market the last couple weeks has been volatile at best. If you step back from the hype and look at the bigger picture, the last couple weeks have resulted in a $2 trillion loss in value. Some analysts are saying that this is a direct result of the collapsing Chinese market. The problem is, many Americans don’t seem to really understand exactly how this will negatively impact local housing prices. Let me explain.

 

First you need to understand that China is NOT a trusted trading partner, even though that is what you are told from certain politicians. Make no mistake, China is a trading adversary and they are hell bent on one long term goal, the collapse of the American dollar as the World reserve currency. Secondly, you need to remember, China is a Communist country. I will admit, Communism in China doesn’t look like it did 30 years ago but, make no mistake, it’s Communism none the less. This results in a highly controlled, highly secretive and highly manipulated market place where free market principals, and ideas are distorted and twisted. This means, that when China reports it’s losses or gains, they should always be viewed with a speculative eye and with cautious concern towards its legitimacy. Unfortunately, that’s not how we have been doing things the past 10-15 years and as a result, we have lost our place in the World as the most power economy and therefore, we are now at the mercy of less friendly countries. Let’s all not forget, China holds an enormous amount of American debt and has been countering America’s currency devaluation policies by issuing their own version of Quantitative Easing.

Now, with all that being said, I hope I have made it clear that China is no friend of the United States because, if you can’t agree with me on this point, the rest of this article isn’t going to make much sense to you.

 

China’s market is in a collapse….a big collapse, no matter what American politicians and Chinese government officials are telling the world. We can see the effects of this collapse very clearly by the crazy ups and downs in our own market. The losses our market is sustaining will negatively impact the revenue streams of Americas largest companies. If they aren’t making gains on the market, they are losing a revenue stream that often times is used for growth of products and services. Essentially, those products and services are sold overseas because American companies are so productive, they have to expand to foreign markets because the American market is heavily penetrated. In other words, if these companies want to continue to grow and make money, they have to open or do business in foreign markets. China is the number 1 buyer of American products and services. This means they purchase more of our stuff than any other country and keep in mind, not only are they the largest buyer of our products and services, they are essentially the last major market. In other words, when China stops buying our products and services, American companies who do business in China are going to feel the hit. So, these American companies taking a double whammy, they lose out on the stock market and then they lose out on the shelf at the store on the street corner.

 

As we all learned from the collapse of our own market in 2007, when companies start feeling the pinch, they start laying off workers and this is where housing prices will be negatively impacted. Simply put, people without jobs can’t pay mortgages and mortgages that don’t get paid go to foreclosure. Large amounts of foreclosed homes drives down prices and people who can still afford to pay their mortgage end up in negative equity, that means they owe more on their home than it’s worth. Now, that doesn’t seem too bad on the surface because you would think that if you just stayed in the home and could pay the mortgage, market will recover in 5 years or so and you would gain your equity back but, don’t forget, mortgages are bundled together and sold on the market as securities. Those securities are held in peoples retirements, no different than the typical diversified funds you likely have at the company who holds your IRA, 401K or whatever group managed retirement account you may have. Then our stock market takes a massive…..some speculate a death blow.

 

Let’s not forget, we have China in the wings, waiting for the first sign of unrecoverable weakness and like a thief in the night, they sell off all their American debt but, it’s not like when your bank sells your mortgage debt to another bank and equal or greater value, it’s a short sale of our debt….and a massive one at that, to the tune of billions and billions of dollars. They flood the world market with cheap, inexpensive, dollars and over night, maybe even in the same day, hyperinflation takes control over here in America and just like in Russia a few months ago, people swarm the banks, try to pull their money out, just to realize, local banks don’t have enough cash reserves to cover everyone’s withdrawal and before you know it, social and civil unrest ensues.

 

I want to be crystal clear here, I am no economist or socio-economic international political expert. I am a self taught, self made man who is trying to read the tea leaves. My opinions are my own and should never be considered financial advice however, it’s not hard for an alert American to look around and see the state of affairs we are in. Not just financially but, socially as well. Our country has been on the wrong track for some time and for some time, we have weathered the storms however, this time it will be different. It will be different because our enemies smell blood in the water. Sure, most Americans are too busy pacifying their children with Ipads, Iphones, I”this” or I”that” to stop and recognize that if they don’t take a more active role in the governance of their country by becoming informed and voting, other less informed, less competent and less liberty loving people will. .

 

In conclusion, the end of 2015 may result in a poor Christmas earnings for American companies due to international market uncertainty. I believe the direct result of a poor Christmas earning season for American companies will be a wave of layoffs 1st quarter 2016. The sign that will tell me that this is starting to happen is the weekly jobless claims. If we see these numbers rise above 300K for a sustained period of two weeks or more, we are in trouble and housing markets will collapse 2-6 months later.

 

 

Jesus "Jesse" D. Gonzalez Broker / Owner TN Lic # 00300859

Liberty House Realty LLC TN Lic # 00262289

1709 Ridgemere Ct. Hermitage Tn 37076

O#: 615-424-0961

C#: 615-424-0961

F#: 615-391-4740

Email: JGonzalez@LHRLLC.com

Alt Email: JGonzalez@RealTracs.com

Web: www.LibertyHouseRealtyLLC.com

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LibertyHouseRealty

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