So…Where are we heading in this market? Countless moratoriums at the Federal and State level. Moratoriums from the banks themselves trying to work out loan mod’s. Local Judges refusing to evict homeowners., Local sheriff’s doing the same. Now we have programs like HAMP and Court decisions like National Bank v. Kesler. There is such an underpinning of resentment from the American people against not only the Banks but corporate America as well. Will this sentiment continue to stall the inevitable? I for one am of the opinion that the market must be allowed to run its course. Real estate is and always has been cyclical. Yes, this is one of the worst markets we have seen in decades but “this too shall pass”.There is a huge amount of shadow inventory the banks are holding. Release it. By all means, do loan mod’s for people who are able to, for people who were duped into loans they could not afford. Help those that we can but at the end of the day these loan mod’s are mere Band-Aids, just delaying the inevitable by a year or two. Put the homes that are foreclosed on the market. Foreclose on the homeowners that have no justifiable means to pay those notes and let the market work its way out. It will be ugly or uglier than it has already been…But we will see quicker return to normalcy. The Government would be better served by spending to create jobs so that MORE homeowners do not lose their homes.So, how do we repair it once it hits “Sea Level”?Keep interest rate levels low and keep the tax incentive for first time home buyers.Ease restrictions on investors purchasing multiple properties. (This is key to the rebuilding)Ease restrictions on homeowners who have had foreclosures and or BK’s to get back into the market.Create restrictions so Banks can no longer offer exotic loans (I hear new ARM programs are coming)There are many others but I would love to hear some other ideas.
Read more…
Posted by Michael Howard on September 24, 2009 at 1:30pm
From MSN Money today. BofA and Wells Fargo have both been on the record stating that the "shadow inventory" does not exist. This is the third published report I have read that sates otherwise. As servicers continue to trickle product into the market there is a strong chance that this will prolong the housing slump for more than originally thought. The tsunami we have all heard about, while driving prices continually lower might rid the market of this distressed inventory faster and perhaps hasten a quicker recovery...Thoughts?Analysts say 7 million soon-to-be foreclosed properties have yet to hit the market.Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Thursday, September 24, 2009 8:59 AMAny optimists touting a housing recovery might want to pause and think about this: Amherst Securities Group analysts believe the market faces another major hurdle because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market.The "huge shadow inventory" reflects mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent and likely to be and, assuming no other properties are on the market, it would take 1.35 years to sell this inventory based on the current pace of existing-home sales, analyst Laurie Goodman wrote in a note to clients.In 2005, there were 1.27 million properties in the same situation.There have been a number of recent economic reports hinting at a recovery for the housing market. In May and June, the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index of home prices rose, the first month-over-month increases in values since 2006. Prices for U.S. homes rose by 0.3% in July from June, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported earlier this week."The favorable seasonals will disappear over the coming months, and the reality of a 7-million-unit housing overhang is likely to set in," the analysts said, according to Bloomberg News .Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that real-estate agents and analysts worry that when the shadow inventory is unleashed, it could cause a big bump in the road to recovery and add a new layer of difficulty for the housing market.Ivy Zelman, the chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a research firm based in Cleveland, believes 3 million to 4 million foreclosed homes will be put up for sale in the next few years. The question is whether the flow of these homes onto the market will resemble "a fire hose or a garden hose or a drip," she told the paper.
Read more…
