The housing boom may very well be on its way to a bust. As many of you know from news sources the stock market the last couple weeks has been volatile at best. If you step back from the hype and look at the bigger picture, the last couple weeks have resulted in a $2 trillion loss in value. Some analysts are saying that this is a direct result of the collapsing Chinese market. The problem is, many Americans don’t seem to really understand exactly how this will negatively impact local housing prices. Let me explain.
First you need to understand that China is NOT a trusted trading partner, even though that is what you are told from certain politicians. Make no mistake, China is a trading adversary and they are hell bent on one long term goal, the collapse of the American dollar as the World reserve currency. Secondly, you need to remember, China is a Communist country. I will admit, Communism in China doesn’t look like it did 30 years ago but, make no mistake, it’s Communism none the less. This results in a highly controlled, highly secretive and highly manipulated market place where free market principals, and ideas are distorted and twisted. This means, that when China reports it’s losses or gains, they should always be viewed with a speculative eye and with cautious concern towards its legitimacy. Unfortunately, that’s not how we have been doing things the past 10-15 years and as a result, we have lost our place in the World as the most power economy and therefore, we are now at the mercy of less friendly countries. Let’s all not forget, China holds an enormous amount of American debt and has been countering America’s currency devaluation policies by issuing their own version of Quantitative Easing.
Now, with all that being said, I hope I have made it clear that China is no friend of the United States because, if you can’t agree with me on this point, the rest of this article isn’t going to make much sense to you.
China’s market is in a collapse….a big collapse, no matter what American politicians and Chinese government officials are telling the world. We can see the effects of this collapse very clearly by the crazy ups and downs in our own market. The losses our market is sustaining will negatively impact the revenue streams of Americas largest companies. If they aren’t making gains on the market, they are losing a revenue stream that often times is used for growth of products and services. Essentially, those products and services are sold overseas because American companies are so productive, they have to expand to foreign markets because the American market is heavily penetrated. In other words, if these companies want to continue to grow and make money, they have to open or do business in foreign markets. China is the number 1 buyer of American products and services. This means they purchase more of our stuff than any other country and keep in mind, not only are they the largest buyer of our products and services, they are essentially the last major market. In other words, when China stops buying our products and services, American companies who do business in China are going to feel the hit. So, these American companies taking a double whammy, they lose out on the stock market and then they lose out on the shelf at the store on the street corner.
As we all learned from the collapse of our own market in 2007, when companies start feeling the pinch, they start laying off workers and this is where housing prices will be negatively impacted. Simply put, people without jobs can’t pay mortgages and mortgages that don’t get paid go to foreclosure. Large amounts of foreclosed homes drives down prices and people who can still afford to pay their mortgage end up in negative equity, that means they owe more on their home than it’s worth. Now, that doesn’t seem too bad on the surface because you would think that if you just stayed in the home and could pay the mortgage, market will recover in 5 years or so and you would gain your equity back but, don’t forget, mortgages are bundled together and sold on the market as securities. Those securities are held in peoples retirements, no different than the typical diversified funds you likely have at the company who holds your IRA, 401K or whatever group managed retirement account you may have. Then our stock market takes a massive…..some speculate a death blow.
Let’s not forget, we have China in the wings, waiting for the first sign of unrecoverable weakness and like a thief in the night, they sell off all their American debt but, it’s not like when your bank sells your mortgage debt to another bank and equal or greater value, it’s a short sale of our debt….and a massive one at that, to the tune of billions and billions of dollars. They flood the world market with cheap, inexpensive, dollars and over night, maybe even in the same day, hyperinflation takes control over here in America and just like in Russia a few months ago, people swarm the banks, try to pull their money out, just to realize, local banks don’t have enough cash reserves to cover everyone’s withdrawal and before you know it, social and civil unrest ensues.
I want to be crystal clear here, I am no economist or socio-economic international political expert. I am a self taught, self made man who is trying to read the tea leaves. My opinions are my own and should never be considered financial advice however, it’s not hard for an alert American to look around and see the state of affairs we are in. Not just financially but, socially as well. Our country has been on the wrong track for some time and for some time, we have weathered the storms however, this time it will be different. It will be different because our enemies smell blood in the water. Sure, most Americans are too busy pacifying their children with Ipads, Iphones, I”this” or I”that” to stop and recognize that if they don’t take a more active role in the governance of their country by becoming informed and voting, other less informed, less competent and less liberty loving people will. .
In conclusion, the end of 2015 may result in a poor Christmas earnings for American companies due to international market uncertainty. I believe the direct result of a poor Christmas earning season for American companies will be a wave of layoffs 1st quarter 2016. The sign that will tell me that this is starting to happen is the weekly jobless claims. If we see these numbers rise above 300K for a sustained period of two weeks or more, we are in trouble and housing markets will collapse 2-6 months later.
Jesus "Jesse" D. Gonzalez Broker / Owner TN Lic # 00300859
Liberty House Realty LLC TN Lic # 00262289
1709 Ridgemere Ct. Hermitage Tn 37076
Alt Email: JGonzalez@RealTracs.com
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