List-to-sold ratios dove into negative territory in December. December List-to-sold ratios tend to be the lowest of the year anyway but this is the first time since starting this project in 2007 we have witnessed a monthly average in negative territory.
Admittedly one month out of over sixty is but a blip on the radar screen. Even so it is a pretty big drop along a very long downward trend.
Chart 1 shows the long downward trend over several years and the dive to negative territory very well. Chart 2 depicts the gradual downward shift from year to year that has been occurring since 2009.
In years past, we typically see list to sold ratios begin an upward trend in January, leading to inventory build in spring however, the long-term trend is down so unless something drastic happens, expect inventory in the next month or two to either increase as it does seasonally but at a much lower pace or maybe, just maybe it will continue its downward slide.
Upward pressure on sale prices has a pretty strong hold for the time being. Speaking of sale prices, I’ll have final results for 2012 complete in about a week.
See list to Sold Charts inventory charts and price trend charts: