Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 6/23/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 5.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6.0 percent compared with the previous week
Refinance Index: decreased 7.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased to 73.8 percent of total applications from 74.8 percent the previous week.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 74.8 percent of total applications from 72.2 percent the previous week, which is the highest refinance share observed in the survey since the week ending December 18, 2009
Arm Share: decreased to 4.9 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.4 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall slightly to $725 billion, as home prices continue to fall and the effect from the homebuyer tax credits wane. Refinance originations will fall to $717 billion in 2010 from $1.4 trillion in 2009, but we continue to mark up our refinance origination forecast given the sharp drop in mortgage rates
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.69 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 24, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.75 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.42 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.13 percent with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.87 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.84 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.89 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.99 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.77 percent this week with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.82 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.93 percent. This is the lowest the 1-year ARM has been since the week ending May 6, 2004 when it averaged 3.76 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Mortgage rates for all but traditional 1-year ARMs hit all time record lows this week in our survey while activity in the housing market slowed in May following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Freddie Mac began collecting rates for 30 year fixed loans in April 1971, 15-year fixed mortgages in September 1991 and 5-year hybrid ARMs in January 2005.
The record low for traditional 1 year ARMs of 3.36 percent occurred during the week of March 25, 2004. Both new and existing home sales showed unexpected declines in May. Existing sales fell 2.2 percent, compared to the market consensus forecast of a 6.0 percent gain, based on figures published by the National Association of Realtor . Sales of new homes fell 32.7 percent to an annualized rate of 300,000 units, which was the largest monthly drop and slowest pace since records began in 1963, according to the Census Bureau
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Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 12.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week's results include an adjustment to account for the Memorial Day holiday
Refinance Index: decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier
Purchase Index: decreased 16.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 30.4 percent lower than Memorial Day week last year.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 72.2 percent of total applications from 73.8 percent the previous week. This is the first decline in the refinance share in five weeks
Arm Share: decreased to 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week, which is the third consecutive weekly decrease.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.72 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending June 10, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.79 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.59 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.17 percent with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.06 percent. The 15-year FRM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 15-year FRM in August of 1991 and sets another record low for the fourth straight week.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 3.92 percent this week, with an average 0.7 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.94 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.17 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 3.91 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.95 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.04 percent. The 1-year ARM has not been lower since the week ending May 27, 2004 when it averaged 3.87 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Following a relatively weak employment report, bond yields fell this week and mortgage rates followed, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Private payrolls rose by 41,000 jobs in May, less than a quarter of the market forecast consensus of an 180,000 gain. Interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgage hover near the record low set on December 3, 2009 in our survey; the Primary Mortgage Market Survey began in April 1971.
Meanwhile, rates on 15-year fixed mortgages set another record low for the fourth week in a row. Overall, the economy does show signs of improvement. The Federal Reserve reported in its June 9th regional economic review that the economy strengthened in all 12 of its Districts over April and May. It also noted that loan quality was stable or improving in most Districts, but remained an issue for banks with large exposure to real estate
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/12/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 57.7 percent of total applications from 51.9 percent the previous week
Arm Share: remained unchanged at 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The recent plunge in rates on US Treasury securities, due to a flight to quality as investors worldwide sought shelter from the Greek debt crisis, benefited US mortgage borrowers last week. Rates on 30 year mortgages dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. As a result, refinance applications for conventional loans jumped, hitting their highest level in six weeks, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. In contrast, purchase applications fell almost 10 percent in the first week following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, as the tax credit likely pulled some sales into April that would otherwise have occurred in May or later
Projections
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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Rates Mostly Unchanged This Week
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.06 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 29, 2010, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week when it averaged 4.39 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.48 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.00 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.03 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.80 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Average 0.5 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.22 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.77 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed loans have averaged about 5 percent over the first four months of this year, staying within a band of roughly a quarter percentage point and virtually matching 2009s annual average, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. These low rates have been helping to moderate house price declines over the course of the year.
Prices on existing homes showed a 12-month increase of 0.7 percent in February, which was the first annual increase since December 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller® 20-city composite index [PDF]. In addition, nine cities experienced positive growth, matching the number in January. Further, the Census Bureaus Constant Quality price index showed that new home prices rose 2.5 percent in the first quarter on an annual basis.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 4/14/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 9.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This is the third lowest Market Index recorded in the survey since the end of June 2009.
Refinance Index: decreased 9.0 percent from the previous week, marking the index’s fifth consecutive decline
Purchase Index: decreased 10.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 17.5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The decline in purchase applications was driven by government purchase applications, which decreased 19.1 percent from last week, compared to a decrease of 2.0 percent in conventional purchase applications.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 58.9 percent of total applications from 58.7 percent the previous week.
increased to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 6.2 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Economic growth and a recovering job market are good news for housing, but we certainly have not seen any significant improvement in housing activity to date. Existing home sales declined in February, and new home sales actually reached a new record low that month. Additionally, the number of existing homes on the market increased, as sellers began to list their properties in anticipation of the spring. Rising inventories on top of weak demand continues to put pressure on prices, with most measures showing either declines or weak gains over the winter.
We predict that mortgage originations will fall by about 38 percent to $1.3 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009. Purchase originations will fall by around 2 percent to $726 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 126 percent to $604 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year.
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Rates at Second Highest Level This Year
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.08 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 1, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.34 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.52 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.10 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.14 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.92 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.05 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.75 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Interest rates for fixed mortgages rose this week following a run up in long-term bond yields, while ARM rates eased slightly, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Rates on 30-year fixed loans were the highest since the starting week of this year. Home-price declines continue to moderate with more metropolitan areas showing stabilizing or rising values.
Compared with one year ago, house prices were down 0.7 percent in January 2010 in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, which was the smallest 12-month decrease since January 2007. Nine of the cities experienced positive growth, led by San Franciscos 9.1 percent annual gain. Recently, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported that homeowners who moved out of default outnumbered those who became newly delinquent in February, which was the first such occurrence since March 2006.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/31/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: decreased 1.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the highest Purchase Index since the week ending October 30, 2009.
Purchase Index: increased 6.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 63.2 percent of total applications from 65.0 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share recorded in the survey since the week ending October 23, 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.2 percent from 4.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Purchase applications have increased over the past month, and are now at their highest level since last October when many homebuyers were rushing to get loans closed before the expected expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. We may be seeing a similar pattern now, as the extended version of the tax credit ends next month.
The housing industry faces another challenge during the spring building season stemming from the end on March 31 of the Federal Reserve’s program of buying mortgage-backed securities. The impact on mortgage interest rates that follows is not expected to be dramatic, but it will certainly act as a damper on home buying. The inventory of unsold homes has declined but remains well above normal levels, and will likely remain relatively high given pending foreclosures
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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