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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 07/28/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 4.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: decreased 5.9 percent from the previous week.
Purchase Index: increased 2.0 percent from one week earlier and is the highest Purchase Index observed in the survey since the end of June
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 78.0 percent of total applications from 79.4 percent the previous week.
Arm Share: increased to 5.7 percent from 5.2 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Federal Reserve policymakers have been increasingly clear that they will keep their target rate at exceptionally low levels for an extended period. They have also made no moves to this point in terms of asset sales from their trillion dollar portfolio of mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs large buyouts of delinquent loans from MBS have substantially been completed by this point, so there are no longer large-scale purchases of MBS by unconventional buyers artificially constraining mortgage rates .
Purchase application data from MBAs Weekly Application Survey show no rebound in activity to date, with apps remaining at 13 year lows (15-year lows for conventional purchase mortgages). As the pending home sales and housing starts numbers showed, this drop in applications clearly predicts similar sized drops in home sales over the next couple of months.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 5/12/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 3.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier
Refinance Index: increased 14.8 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 9.5 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 8.9 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 57.7 percent of total applications from 51.9 percent the previous week
Arm Share: remained unchanged at 6.3 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The recent plunge in rates on US Treasury securities, due to a flight to quality as investors worldwide sought shelter from the Greek debt crisis, benefited US mortgage borrowers last week. Rates on 30 year mortgages dropped to their lowest level since mid-March. As a result, refinance applications for conventional loans jumped, hitting their highest level in six weeks, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. In contrast, purchase applications fell almost 10 percent in the first week following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, as the tax credit likely pulled some sales into April that would otherwise have occurred in May or later
Projections
We predict that mortgage originations will fall to $1.37 trillion in 2010 from an estimated $2.1 trillion in 2009, a 35 percent decline. Purchase originations will decline very slightly by around 3 percent to $717 billion, as home prices stabilize, and home sales increase. Refinance originations will fall by about 52 percent to $656 billion in 2010 as mortgage rates are expected to rise through the year. Refinance volumes in the first half of the year are likely to be somewhat higher than anticipated in prior forecasts as rates decreased sharply in recent weeks due to the crisis in Europe. We have adjusted our refinance forecast upwards in response.
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Rates at Second Highest Level This Year
30-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 5.08 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 1, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.78 percent.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage: Averaged 4.39 percent with an average 0.6 point, up slightly from last week when it averaged 4.34 percent. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 4.52 percent.
Five-year indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages ARMs: Averaged 4.10 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.14 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 4.92 percent.
One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs: Averaged 4.05 percent this week with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.20 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 4.75 percent.
Freddie Sayz
Interest rates for fixed mortgages rose this week following a run up in long-term bond yields, while ARM rates eased slightly, said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Rates on 30-year fixed loans were the highest since the starting week of this year. Home-price declines continue to moderate with more metropolitan areas showing stabilizing or rising values.
Compared with one year ago, house prices were down 0.7 percent in January 2010 in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, which was the smallest 12-month decrease since January 2007. Nine of the cities experienced positive growth, led by San Franciscos 9.1 percent annual gain. Recently, the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported that homeowners who moved out of default outnumbered those who became newly delinquent in February, which was the first such occurrence since March 2006.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/31/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) increased 1.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 1.5 percent compared with the previous week.
Refinance Index: decreased 1.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 6.8 percent from one week earlier. This is the highest Purchase Index since the week ending October 30, 2009.
Purchase Index: increased 6.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.3 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: decreased to 63.2 percent of total applications from 65.0 percent the previous week. This is the lowest refinance share recorded in the survey since the week ending October 23, 2009.
Arm Share: increased to 5.2 percent from 4.8 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
Purchase applications have increased over the past month, and are now at their highest level since last October when many homebuyers were rushing to get loans closed before the expected expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, said Michael Fratantoni, MBAs Vice President of Research and Economics. We may be seeing a similar pattern now, as the extended version of the tax credit ends next month.
The housing industry faces another challenge during the spring building season stemming from the end on March 31 of the Federal Reserve’s program of buying mortgage-backed securities. The impact on mortgage interest rates that follows is not expected to be dramatic, but it will certainly act as a damper on home buying. The inventory of unsold homes has declined but remains well above normal levels, and will likely remain relatively high given pending foreclosures
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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Mortgage Bankers Association for the week of 3/17/2010
Market Composite Index: (loan application volume) decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.7 percent compared with the previous week. .
Refinance Index: decreased 1.7 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier.
Purchase Index: decreased 1.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 13.9 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
Refinance Share of Mortgage Activity: increased to 67.3 percent of total applications from 67.2 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
Arm Share: decreased to 4.6 percent from 5.1 percent of total applications from the previous week.
MBA outlook: (Excerpted from mbaa.org)
The most recent data on the housing market continues to show profound weakness .
Inventories of unsold homes have declined, but remain elevated. Expect further additions to the supply of homes on the market due to the still growing number of homes in or potentially in foreclosure. We expect that home prices may stabilize in 2010, but wont begin to grow appreciably until late 2011 or early 2012.
Although the Fed has reaffirmed plans to end the MBS purchase program by the end of March, mortgage rates havent budged to this point. We still anticipate that mortgage rates will likely rise by about half a percentage point in the second quarter, and then another half a percentage point through the remainder of the year, as the economic recovery continues. Mortgage rates at 6 percent should significantly slow refinance activity, but should not slow the modest housing market recovery we are forecasting.
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